← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Grant Dawson won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1527

Elo1533

Grant DawsonvsRafa GarciaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · Saturday, October 12, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Grant Dawson won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:42

Style matchupGrant Dawson: WrestlervsRafa Garcia: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Grant Dawson wins(66.5%)

Actual result: Grant Dawson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Grant Dawson at -380 American odds

+$26 profit

$126 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rafa Garcia enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Rafa Garcia has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Grant Dawson (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Grant Dawson

Red Corner

Rafa Garcia

Blue Corner

-380

(79%)

Vegas Odds

+300

(25%)

1527

Elo

1533

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'7"

182.88 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Grant Dawson

oldest →

KOvs King Green · Oct 23

vs Joe Solecki · Jun 24

vs Diego Ferreira · Jan 25

KOvs Manuel Torres · Dec 25

SUBvs Mateusz Rebecki · May 26

latest

Rafa GarciaW5 streak

oldest →

vs Maheshate · Dec 22

vs Clay Guida · Apr 23

vs Vinc Pichel · Mar 25

KOvs Jared Gordon · Sep 25

DECvs Alexander Hernandez · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Grant DawsonMetricRafa Garcia

3.14

Strikes / min

4.28

2.14

Strikes absorbed / min

4.42

44%

Strike defense

61%

3.58

TDs / 15 min

3.22

66%

Takedown defense

77%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.00Δ 1.14 — meaningful gap-0.14

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Grant DawsonRafa Garcia

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Grant Dawson(10 fights)Rafa Garcia(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -5.5|Blue +5.5

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -413.0|Blue +413.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Grant DawsonTargetRafa Garcia

By target zone

50% acc · 86%

Head

50% acc · 80%

33% acc · 9%

Body

25% acc · 20%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

By position

21% acc · 11%

Distance

36% acc · 80%

Clinch

100% acc · 20%

59% acc · 89%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Grant Dawson rounds

even

Rafa Garcia rounds

Round 1Grant Dawson edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control3:50

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Grant Dawson edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns1

Control1:19

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

44 / 90

Sig Strikes

5 / 12

50.5%

Sig Str %

45%

80 / 144

Total Strikes

29 / 38

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

66.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:09

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rafa Garcia	4 / 10	27 / 34	0 / 0
1	Grant Dawson	20 / 52	41 / 87	1 / 3
2	Rafa Garcia	1 / 2	2 / 4	0 / 0
2	Grant Dawson	24 / 38	39 / 57	1 / 1

Grant Dawson

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights14

Rafa Garcia

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11