Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Hector Lombard enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Anthony Smith enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Hector Lombard is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Anthony Smith has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Hector Lombard has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Hector Lombard (53.5%).
- Anthony Smith has a 13cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Hector LombardL5 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Neil Magny · Mar 16L
KOvs Dan Henderson · Jun 16L
vs Johny Hendricks · Feb 17L
vs Thales Leites · Sep 18 Anthony SmithL3 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Dec 23W
SUBvs Vitor Petrino · May 24L
vs Roman Dolidze · Jun 24L
KOvs Dominick Reyes · Dec 24L
KOvs Zhang Mingyang · Apr 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Hector LombardMetricAnthony Smith
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.33Δ 1.52 — meaningful gap-1.85
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Hector LombardAnthony Smith
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Hector Lombard(10 fights)Anthony Smith(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -117.4|Blue +117.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.5|Blue +1.5
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +55.0|Blue -55.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Hector LombardTargetAnthony Smith
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Hector Lombard edged it
Sig. strikes31
Takedowns0
Control0:17
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Hector Lombard edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns1
Control1:19
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
Round 3Anthony Smith edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
