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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Muhammad Mokaev won · SUB R3

Elo1500

Elo1528

Tim ElliottvsMuhammad MokaevUFC Prediction Result

UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · Saturday, October 21, 2023Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Muhammad Mokaev won

SUB · Round 3 · 3:03

Style matchupTim Elliott: WrestlervsMuhammad Mokaev: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Muhammad Mokaev wins(70.3%)

Actual result: Muhammad Mokaev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Muhammad Mokaev at -520 American odds

+$19 profit

$119 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Muhammad Mokaev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Muhammad Mokaev threatens submissions; Tim Elliott has lost 42% of fights by sub.
Tim Elliott has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Tim Elliott (53.5%).
Muhammad Mokaev has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Tim Elliott

Red Corner

Muhammad Mokaev

Blue Corner

+350

(22%)

Vegas Odds

-520

(84%)

1500

Elo

1528

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'7"

167.64 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tim Elliott

oldest →

vs Tagir Ulanbekov · Mar 22

vs Victor Altamirano · Jun 23

SUBvs Sumudaerji · Dec 23

SUBvs Kai Asakura · Aug 25

DECvs Steve Erceg · May 26

latest

Muhammad MokaevW5 streak

oldest →

vs Charles Johnson · Jul 22

SUBvs Malcolm Gordon · Oct 22

SUBvs Jafel Filho · Mar 23

vs Alex Perez · Mar 24

vs Manel Kape · Jul 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tim ElliottMetricMuhammad Mokaev

3.51

Strikes / min

1.61

3.00

Strikes absorbed / min

1.35

56%

Strike defense

57%

3.61

TDs / 15 min

5.29

59%

Takedown defense

25%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.51evenly matched on net striking+0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tim ElliottMuhammad Mokaev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tim Elliott(10 fights)Muhammad Mokaev(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -27.5|Blue +27.5

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -77.0|Blue +77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tim ElliottTargetMuhammad Mokaev

By target zone

63% acc · 63%

Head

38% acc · 57%

83% acc · 33%

Body

38% acc · 21%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

75% acc · 21%

By position

52% acc · 47%

Distance

34% acc · 71%

100% acc · 27%

Clinch

100% acc · 7%

100% acc · 27%

Ground

100% acc · 21%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tim Elliott rounds

even

Muhammad Mokaev rounds

Round 1Tim Elliott edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control1:40

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:36Control

Round 2Muhammad Mokaev edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:56Control

Round 3Muhammad Mokaev edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:43

1Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:52Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 43

Sig Strikes

14 / 33

76.7%

Sig Str %

61.7%

71 / 87

Total Strikes

118 / 146

1 / 1

TDs

3 / 6

100%

TD %

61%

Sub Att

Rev

2:23

Ctrl Time

8:24

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Muhammad Mokaev	10 / 28	40 / 58	1 / 3	0
1	Tim Elliott	20 / 31	34 / 46	1 / 1	0
2	Muhammad Mokaev	3 / 3	60 / 65	1 / 1	0
2	Tim Elliott	6 / 6	33 / 35	0 / 0	2
3	Muhammad Mokaev	1 / 2	18 / 23	1 / 2	1
3	Tim Elliott	4 / 6	4 / 6	0 / 0	0

Tim Elliott

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights21

Muhammad Mokaev

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7