Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stephen Thompson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Kevin Holland has a 15cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Stephen ThompsonL5 streak
oldest →L
vs Gilbert Burns · Jul 21L
vs Belal Muhammad · Dec 21L
SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 23L
KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Oct 24L
vs Gabriel Bonfim · Jul 25 Kevin Holland
oldest →W
vs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 25W
SUBvs Vicente Luque · Jun 25L
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jul 25W
DECvs Randy Brown · Apr 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Stephen ThompsonMetricKevin Holland
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.05evenly matched on net striking+1.03
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Stephen ThompsonKevin Holland
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Stephen Thompson(10 fights)Kevin Holland(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -27.4|Blue +27.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.2|Blue -1.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +266.0|Blue -266.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Stephen ThompsonTargetKevin Holland
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Kevin Holland edged it
Sig. strikes34
Takedowns0
Control0:00
49Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:27Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes38
Takedowns0
Control0:04
33Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:06Control
Round 3Stephen Thompson edged it
Sig. strikes43
Takedowns0
Control0:06
25Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:16Control
Round 4Stephen Thompson edged it
Sig. strikes48
Takedowns0
Control0:37
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:32Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
