Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Dominick Cruz has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Dominick Cruz
oldest →L
vs Cody Garbrandt · Dec 16L
KOvs Henry Cejudo · May 20W
vs Casey Kenney · Mar 21W
vs Pedro Munhoz · Dec 21L
KOvs Marlon Vera · Aug 22 Demetrious Johnson
oldest →W
KOvs Henry Cejudo · Apr 16W
SUBvs Wilson Reis · Apr 17L
vs Henry Cejudo · Aug 18 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Dominick CruzMetricDemetrious Johnson
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.30evenly matched on net striking+1.77
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Dominick CruzDemetrious Johnson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Dominick Cruz(10 fights)Demetrious Johnson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +4.3|Blue -4.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.3|Blue +1.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -35.0|Blue +35.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Dominick CruzTargetDemetrious Johnson
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
0
Demetrious Johnson rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns1
Control2:17
18Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:59Control
Round 2Dominick Cruz edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns2
Control2:01
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:00Control
Round 3Dominick Cruz edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns2
Control2:42
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:34Control
Round 4Dominick Cruz edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns2
Control2:29
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
Round 5Dominick Cruz edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns3
Control3:12
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:21Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
