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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Ryan Hall won · SUB R1
Elo1373
Elo1494

BJ PennvsRyan HallUFC Prediction Result

UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · Saturday, December 29, 2018Los Angeles, California, USA

Official fight result

Ryan Hall won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:46

Model Prediction: Ryan Hall wins(62.1%)

Actual result: Ryan Hall wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ryan Hall at -460 American odds

+$22 profit

$122 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • BJ Penn enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
  • BJ Penn has 74pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Ryan Hall (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

BJ Penn
Red Corner
VS
Ryan Hall
Blue Corner
+365
(22%)
Vegas Odds
-460
(82%)
1373
Elo
1494
47
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
5'10"
177.8 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

BJ PennL5 streak
oldest →
L
vs Rory MacDonald · Dec 12
L
KOvs Frankie Edgar · Jul 14
L
KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jan 17
L
vs Dennis Siver · Jun 17
L
vs Clay Guida · May 19
latest
Ryan Hall
oldest →
W
vs Artem Lobov · Dec 15
W
vs Gray Maynard · Dec 16
W
vs Darren Elkins · Jul 19
L
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jul 21
W
vs Darrick Minner · Dec 21
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

BJ PennMetricRyan Hall
2.76
Strikes / min
2.38
3.20
Strikes absorbed / min
1.33
56%
Strike defense
65%
1.19
TDs / 15 min
0.22
74%
Takedown defense
0%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
2.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.44Δ 1.49 — meaningful gap+1.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1420 vs 1532Strikes37.3 vs 34.5Takedowns1.0 vs 0.5Sub Atts0.48 vs 0.50Form-1.0 vs 1.0
BJ PennRyan Hall

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
BJ Penn(10 fights)Ryan Hall(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -121.8|Blue +121.8
Recent Form
Red -1.9|Blue +1.9
Striker Score
Red +1.6|Blue -1.6
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red -204.0|Blue +204.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

BJ PennTargetRyan Hall

By target zone

1
20% acc · 33%
Head
0
0% acc
1
100% acc · 33%
Body
1
50% acc · 17%
1
50% acc · 33%
Leg
5
83% acc · 83%

By position

2
40% acc · 67%
Distance
6
43% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0% acc
1
33% acc · 33%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
BJ Penn rounds
1
even
0
Ryan Hall rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control1:33
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
3 / 8
Sig Strikes
6 / 15
37%
Sig Str %
40%
8 / 15
Total Strikes
8 / 19
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
1:33
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ryan Hall6 / 158 / 190 / 01
1BJ Penn3 / 88 / 150 / 00

BJ Penn

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights10

Ryan Hall

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights6