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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Sam Hughes won · M-DEC R3

Elo1475

Elo1509

Istela NunesvsSam HughesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad · Saturday, April 16, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Sam Hughes won

M-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupIstela Nunes: Pressure fightervsSam Hughes: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Sam Hughes wins(51.0%)

Actual result: Sam Hughes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sam Hughes at +195 American odds

+$195 profit

$295 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Istela Nunes enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Sam Hughes has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Istela Nunes

Red Corner

Sam Hughes

Blue Corner

-240

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+195

(34%)

1475

Elo

1509

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'5"

167.64 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Istela NunesL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Ariane Carnelossi · Oct 21

KOvs Yazmin Jauregui · Dec 22

KOvs Viktoriia Dudakova · Jul 23

vs Loma Lookboonmee · Apr 25

latest

Sam Hughes

oldest →

vs Yazmin Jauregui · Feb 24

vs Viktoriia Dudakova · Aug 24

vs Stephanie Luciano · Mar 25

SUBvs Shauna Bannon · Sep 25

vs Piera Rodriguez · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Istela NunesMetricSam Hughes

4.28

Strikes / min

4.41

4.07

Strikes absorbed / min

4.69

59%

Strike defense

58%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.12

47%

Takedown defense

63%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.21evenly matched on net striking-0.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Istela NunesSam Hughes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Istela Nunes(5 fights)Sam Hughes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -34.5|Blue +34.5

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Istela NunesTargetSam Hughes

By target zone

30% acc · 58%

Head

40% acc · 88%

59% acc · 29%

Body

60% acc · 12%

100% acc · 12%

Leg

By position

38% acc · 93%

Distance

38% acc · 78%

83% acc · 6%

Clinch

57% acc · 5%

50% acc · 1%

Ground

68% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Istela Nunes rounds

even

Sam Hughes rounds

Round 1Istela Nunes edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:00

31Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:35Control

Round 3Sam Hughes edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:51Control

Fight Stats

Totals

89 / 228

Sig Strikes

76 / 182

37%

Sig Str %

40.7%

90 / 229

Total Strikes

151 / 257

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 5

—

TD %

62.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

3:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Sam Hughes	15 / 48	15 / 48	0 / 0
1	Istela Nunes	40 / 92	40 / 92	0 / 0
2	Sam Hughes	31 / 76	60 / 105	1 / 4
2	Istela Nunes	37 / 98	37 / 98	0 / 0
3	Sam Hughes	30 / 58	76 / 104	1 / 1
3	Istela Nunes	12 / 38	13 / 39	0 / 0

Istela Nunes

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights5

Sam Hughes

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights12