Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jake Collier enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Marcel Fortuna has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Jake Collier has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jake CollierL4 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Chase Sherman · Jan 22L
vs Andrei Arlovski · Apr 22L
KOvs Chris Barnett · Sep 22L
vs Martin Buday · Apr 23L
vs Mohammed Usman · Sep 23 Marcel Fortuna
oldest →W
KOvs Anthony Hamilton · Feb 17L
vs Jordan Johnson · Jul 17 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jake CollierMetricMarcel Fortuna
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.72Δ 1.41 — meaningful gap-0.69
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Jake CollierMarcel Fortuna
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jake Collier(10 fights)Marcel Fortuna(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +111.2|Blue -111.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +83.0|Blue -83.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Jake CollierTargetMarcel Fortuna
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Jake Collier edged it
Sig. strikes29
Takedowns0
Control0:04
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:22Control
Round 2Jake Collier edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns0
Control0:57
13Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:44Control
Round 3Jake Collier edged it
Sig. strikes41
Takedowns0
Control0:10
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
