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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Evan Elder won · U-DEC R3

Elo1518

Elo1465

Evan EldervsGenaro ValdezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · Saturday, July 15, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Evan Elder won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupEvan Elder: Pressure fightervsGenaro Valdez: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Evan Elder wins(64.2%)

Actual result: Evan Elder wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Evan Elder at -300 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Evan Elder (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Evan Elder

Red Corner

Genaro Valdez

Blue Corner

-300

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+245

(29%)

1518

Elo

1465

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'9"

182.88 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Evan ElderW2 streak

oldest →

vs Preston Parsons · Apr 22

KOvs Nazim Sadykhov · Feb 23

SUBvs Darrius Flowers · Jul 24

vs Gauge Young · Apr 25

latest

Genaro ValdezL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Matt Frevola · Jan 22

vs Natan Levy · Dec 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Evan ElderMetricGenaro Valdez

5.66

Strikes / min

4.08

4.94

Strikes absorbed / min

7.16

57%

Strike defense

48%

0.48

TDs / 15 min

1.54

40%

Takedown defense

36%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.72Δ 3.80 — meaningful gap-3.08

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Evan ElderGenaro Valdez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Evan Elder(5 fights)Genaro Valdez(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +53.1|Blue -53.1

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -77.0|Blue +77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Evan ElderTargetGenaro Valdez

By target zone

39% acc · 64%

Head

24% acc · 80%

79% acc · 16%

Body

67% acc · 6%

95% acc · 21%

Leg

45% acc · 14%

By position

50% acc · 100%

Distance

27% acc · 97%

0% acc

Clinch

40% acc · 3%

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Evan Elder rounds

even

Genaro Valdez rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:03

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Evan Elder edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns1

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Evan Elder edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns1

Control0:03

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

96 / 195

Sig Strikes

64 / 236

49.3%

Sig Str %

26.7%

96 / 195

Total Strikes

65 / 237

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Genaro Valdez	24 / 76	25 / 77	0 / 0	0
1	Evan Elder	25 / 50	25 / 50	0 / 0	1
2	Genaro Valdez	22 / 80	22 / 80	0 / 0	0
2	Evan Elder	37 / 67	37 / 67	0 / 0	0
3	Genaro Valdez	18 / 80	18 / 80	0 / 0	0
3	Evan Elder	34 / 78	34 / 78	1 / 1	0

Evan Elder

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights5

Genaro Valdez

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights3