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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Evan Elder won · U-DEC R3

Elo1518

Elo1526

Evan EldervsGauge YoungUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · Saturday, April 26, 2025Kansas City, Missouri, USA

Official fight result

Evan Elder won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupEvan Elder: Pressure fightervsGauge Young: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Evan Elder wins(53.2%)

Actual result: Evan Elder wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Evan Elder at -215 American odds

+$47 profit

$147 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gauge Young has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Evan Elder (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Evan Elder

Red Corner

Gauge Young

Blue Corner

-215

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1518

Elo

1526

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'9"

182.88 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Evan ElderW2 streak

oldest →

vs Preston Parsons · Apr 22

KOvs Nazim Sadykhov · Feb 23

vs Genaro Valdez · Jul 23

SUBvs Darrius Flowers · Jul 24

latest

Gauge YoungW2 streak

oldest →

vs Maheshate · Aug 25

DECvs Thiago Moises · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Evan ElderMetricGauge Young

5.66

Strikes / min

6.32

4.94

Strikes absorbed / min

5.12

57%

Strike defense

49%

0.48

TDs / 15 min

0.75

40%

Takedown defense

76%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.72evenly matched on net striking+1.20

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Evan ElderGauge Young

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Evan Elder(5 fights)Gauge Young(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -8.7|Blue +8.7

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Evan ElderTargetGauge Young

By target zone

37% acc · 41%

Head

31% acc · 41%

79% acc · 39%

Body

59% acc · 41%

88% acc · 20%

Leg

75% acc · 19%

By position

115

55% acc · 100%

Distance

44% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Evan Elder rounds

even

Gauge Young rounds

Round 1Evan Elder edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control0:16

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 2Evan Elder edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Evan Elder edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns0

Control0:00

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

115 / 210

Sig Strikes

81 / 183

54.7%

Sig Str %

45.3%

115 / 210

Total Strikes

81 / 183

0 / 3

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:16

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gauge Young	21 / 37	21 / 37	0 / 1
1	Evan Elder	35 / 57	35 / 57	0 / 2
2	Gauge Young	24 / 69	24 / 69	0 / 0
2	Evan Elder	40 / 76	40 / 76	0 / 1
3	Gauge Young	36 / 77	36 / 77	0 / 0
3	Evan Elder	40 / 77	40 / 77	0 / 0

Evan Elder

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights5

Gauge Young

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights2