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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Evan Elder won · SUB R2

Elo1518

Elo1506

Evan EldervsDarrius FlowersUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · Saturday, July 13, 2024Denver, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Evan Elder won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:46

Style matchupEvan Elder: Pressure fightervsDarrius Flowers: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Evan Elder wins(69.5%)

Actual result: Evan Elder wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Darrius Flowers is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Evan Elder has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Evan Elder has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Darrius Flowers has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Evan Elder (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Evan Elder

Red Corner

Darrius Flowers

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1518

Elo

1506

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'9"

182.88 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Evan ElderW2 streak

oldest →

vs Preston Parsons · Apr 22

KOvs Nazim Sadykhov · Feb 23

vs Genaro Valdez · Jul 23

vs Gauge Young · Apr 25

latest

Darrius Flowers

oldest →

SUBvs Jake Matthews · Jul 23

vs Michael Johnson · Feb 24

KOvs Lando Vannata · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Evan ElderMetricDarrius Flowers

5.66

Strikes / min

3.13

4.94

Strikes absorbed / min

5.35

57%

Strike defense

42%

0.48

TDs / 15 min

1.65

40%

Takedown defense

66%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.72Δ 2.94 — meaningful gap-2.22

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Evan ElderDarrius Flowers

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Evan Elder(5 fights)Darrius Flowers(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +11.4|Blue -11.4

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +210.0|Blue -210.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Evan ElderTargetDarrius Flowers

By target zone

33% acc · 38%

Head

32% acc · 50%

82% acc · 60%

Body

38% acc · 21%

50% acc · 2%

Leg

70% acc · 29%

By position

48% acc · 64%

Distance

38% acc · 88%

60% acc · 7%

Clinch

75% acc · 13%

62% acc · 29%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Evan Elder rounds

even

Darrius Flowers rounds

Round 1Evan Elder edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control1:24

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 2Evan Elder edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:37

0Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:22Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

45 / 86

Sig Strikes

24 / 60

60.5%

Sig Str %

20.5%

61 / 104

Total Strikes

26 / 65

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 2

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

2:01

Ctrl Time

0:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Darrius Flowers	24 / 58	25 / 59	0 / 1	0
1	Evan Elder	37 / 75	48 / 88	0 / 1	0
2	Darrius Flowers	0 / 2	1 / 6	1 / 1	0
2	Evan Elder	8 / 11	13 / 16	0 / 0	1

Evan Elder

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights5

Darrius Flowers

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4