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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Evan Dunham won · U-DEC R3

Elo1385

Elo1351

Evan DunhamvsShamar BaileyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger · Saturday, September 17, 2011New Orleans, Louisiana, USA

Official fight result

Evan Dunham won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Shamar Bailey wins(70.8%)

Actual result: Evan Dunham wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Shamar Bailey at +370 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Evan Dunham enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Evan Dunham has 42pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Shamar Bailey has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Evan Dunham

Red Corner

Shamar Bailey

Blue Corner

-415

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+370

(21%)

1385

Elo

1351

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Evan DunhamL3 streak

oldest →

vs Joe Lauzon · Dec 15

vs Rick Glenn · Sep 16

KOvs Olivier Aubin-Mercier · Apr 18

KOvs Francisco Trinaldo · Sep 18

SUBvs Herbert Burns · Jun 20

latest

Shamar Bailey

oldest →

vs Ryan McGillivray · Jun 11

KOvs Danny Castillo · Nov 11

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Evan DunhamMetricShamar Bailey

5.33

Strikes / min

1.56

3.54

Strikes absorbed / min

3.91

61%

Strike defense

69%

1.82

TDs / 15 min

1.50

79%

Takedown defense

37%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.79Δ 4.14 — meaningful gap-2.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Evan DunhamShamar Bailey

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Evan Dunham(10 fights)Shamar Bailey(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +33.7|Blue -33.7

Recent Form

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Striker Score

Red +2.2|Blue -2.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +133.0|Blue -133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Evan DunhamTargetShamar Bailey

By target zone

26% acc · 95%

Head

11% acc · 54%

25% acc · 3%

Body

33% acc · 14%

67% acc · 2%

Leg

50% acc · 31%

By position

26% acc · 98%

Distance

16% acc · 94%

40% acc · 2%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Evan Dunham rounds

even

Shamar Bailey rounds

Round 1Evan Dunham edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 2Evan Dunham edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:13

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Evan Dunham edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

92 / 351

Sig Strikes

35 / 206

25.7%

Sig Str %

17.3%

94 / 353

Total Strikes

35 / 206

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 5

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:13

Ctrl Time

0:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Shamar Bailey	16 / 57	16 / 57	0 / 1	0
1	Evan Dunham	20 / 96	20 / 96	0 / 0	0
2	Shamar Bailey	8 / 63	8 / 63	0 / 3	0
2	Evan Dunham	34 / 109	36 / 111	0 / 0	0
3	Shamar Bailey	11 / 86	11 / 86	0 / 1	0
3	Evan Dunham	38 / 146	38 / 146	0 / 0	1

Evan Dunham

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17

Shamar Bailey

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights3