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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Evan Dunham won · U-DEC R3

Elo1385

Elo1354

Evan DunhamvsRodrigo DammUFC Prediction Result

UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier · Saturday, January 3, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Evan Dunham won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupEvan Dunham: Submission grapplervsRodrigo Damm: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Evan Dunham wins(63.5%)

Actual result: Evan Dunham wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Evan Dunham at -705 American odds

+$14 profit

$114 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Evan Dunham enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Evan Dunham (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Evan Dunham

Red Corner

Rodrigo Damm

Blue Corner

-705

(88%)

Vegas Odds

+570

(15%)

1385

Elo

1354

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Evan DunhamL3 streak

oldest →

vs Joe Lauzon · Dec 15

vs Rick Glenn · Sep 16

KOvs Olivier Aubin-Mercier · Apr 18

KOvs Francisco Trinaldo · Sep 18

SUBvs Herbert Burns · Jun 20

latest

Rodrigo DammL2 streak

oldest →

vs Antonio Carvalho · Nov 12

vs Mizuto Hirota · Jun 13

vs Ivan Jorge · Feb 14

vs Rashid Magomedov · May 14

KOvs Al Iaquinta · Sep 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Evan DunhamMetricRodrigo Damm

5.33

Strikes / min

3.50

3.54

Strikes absorbed / min

5.61

61%

Strike defense

57%

1.82

TDs / 15 min

0.44

79%

Takedown defense

80%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.79Δ 3.90 — meaningful gap-2.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Evan DunhamRodrigo Damm

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Evan Dunham(10 fights)Rodrigo Damm(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +30.8|Blue -30.8

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +51.0|Blue -51.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Evan DunhamTargetRodrigo Damm

By target zone

125

41% acc · 82%

Head

27% acc · 79%

63% acc · 14%

Body

67% acc · 17%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

147

44% acc · 97%

Distance

30% acc · 98%

63% acc · 3%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Evan Dunham rounds

even

Rodrigo Damm rounds

Round 1Evan Dunham edged it

Sig. strikes53

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Evan Dunham edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns1

Control0:34

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Evan Dunham edged it

Sig. strikes59

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

152 / 344

Sig Strikes

47 / 153

43.7%

Sig Str %

30%

156 / 350

Total Strikes

47 / 153

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:34

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rodrigo Damm	11 / 40	11 / 40	0 / 0
1	Evan Dunham	53 / 121	53 / 121	0 / 0
2	Rodrigo Damm	12 / 38	12 / 38	0 / 0
2	Evan Dunham	40 / 92	44 / 98	1 / 2
3	Rodrigo Damm	24 / 75	24 / 75	0 / 0
3	Evan Dunham	59 / 131	59 / 131	0 / 0

Evan Dunham

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17

Rodrigo Damm

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights7