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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Olivier Aubin-Mercier won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1385

Elo1375

Evan DunhamvsOlivier Aubin-MercierUFC Prediction Result

UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · Saturday, April 7, 2018Brooklyn, New York, USA

Official fight result

Olivier Aubin-Mercier won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:53

Style matchupEvan Dunham: Submission grapplervsOlivier Aubin-Mercier: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Olivier Aubin-Mercier wins(63.9%)

Actual result: Olivier Aubin-Mercier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Olivier Aubin-Mercier at +120 American odds

+$120 profit

$220 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Olivier Aubin-Mercier enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Evan Dunham

Red Corner

Olivier Aubin-Mercier

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1385

Elo

1375

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Evan DunhamL2 streak

oldest →

vs Ross Pearson · Jul 15

vs Joe Lauzon · Dec 15

vs Rick Glenn · Sep 16

KOvs Francisco Trinaldo · Sep 18

SUBvs Herbert Burns · Jun 20

latest

Olivier Aubin-MercierL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Drew Dober · Dec 16

vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Sep 17

vs Alexander Hernandez · Jul 18

vs Gilbert Burns · Dec 18

vs Arman Tsarukyan · Jul 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Evan DunhamMetricOlivier Aubin-Mercier

5.33

Strikes / min

2.48

3.54

Strikes absorbed / min

2.97

61%

Strike defense

55%

1.82

TDs / 15 min

2.36

79%

Takedown defense

70%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.79Δ 2.28 — meaningful gap-0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Evan DunhamOlivier Aubin-Mercier

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Evan Dunham(10 fights)Olivier Aubin-Mercier(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +10.1|Blue -10.1

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +364.0|Blue -364.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Evan DunhamTargetOlivier Aubin-Mercier

By target zone

29% acc · 100%

Head

64% acc · 69%

Body

100% acc · 31%

Leg

By position

23% acc · 75%

Distance

60% acc · 23%

100% acc · 25%

Clinch

89% acc · 62%

Ground

50% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Evan Dunham rounds

even

Olivier Aubin-Mercier rounds

Round 1Olivier Aubin-Mercier edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 14

Sig Strikes

13 / 18

28%

Sig Str %

72%

4 / 14

Total Strikes

13 / 18

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Olivier Aubin-Mercier	13 / 18	13 / 18	0 / 0	0
1	Evan Dunham	4 / 14	4 / 14	0 / 0	0

Evan Dunham

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17

Olivier Aubin-Mercier

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights12