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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Evan Dunham won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1385

Elo1395

Evan DunhamvsNik LentzUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis · Saturday, January 28, 2012Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Evan Dunham won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 5:00

Style matchupEvan Dunham: Submission grapplervsNik Lentz: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Nik Lentz wins(51.9%)

Actual result: Evan Dunham wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nik Lentz at +320 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Evan Dunham enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Nik Lentz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Evan Dunham has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Evan Dunham has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Evan Dunham (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Evan Dunham

Red Corner

Nik Lentz

Blue Corner

-355

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+320

(24%)

1385

Elo

1395

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Evan DunhamL3 streak

oldest →

vs Joe Lauzon · Dec 15

vs Rick Glenn · Sep 16

KOvs Olivier Aubin-Mercier · Apr 18

KOvs Francisco Trinaldo · Sep 18

SUBvs Herbert Burns · Jun 20

latest

Nik LentzL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Gray Maynard · Oct 18

vs Scott Holtzman · Feb 19

KOvs Charles Oliveira · May 19

vs Arnold Allen · Jan 20

vs Movsar Evloev · Jan 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Evan DunhamMetricNik Lentz

5.33

Strikes / min

3.44

3.54

Strikes absorbed / min

3.25

61%

Strike defense

50%

1.82

TDs / 15 min

3.30

79%

Takedown defense

43%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.79Δ 1.60 — meaningful gap+0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Evan DunhamNik Lentz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Evan Dunham(10 fights)Nik Lentz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -10.0|Blue +10.0

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +84.0|Blue -84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Evan DunhamTargetNik Lentz

By target zone

69% acc · 96%

Head

46% acc · 72%

100% acc · 4%

Body

67% acc · 21%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

64% acc · 62%

Distance

49% acc · 64%

85% acc · 25%

Clinch

56% acc · 36%

82% acc · 13%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Evan Dunham rounds

even

Nik Lentz rounds

Round 1Evan Dunham edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns1

Control1:38

19Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:33Control

Round 2Evan Dunham edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns1

Control3:15

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:25Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

68 / 97

Sig Strikes

39 / 76

70.5%

Sig Str %

51%

100 / 129

Total Strikes

57 / 96

2 / 2

TDs

2 / 8

100%

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

4:53

Ctrl Time

0:58

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nik Lentz	19 / 39	27 / 48	2 / 4	0
1	Evan Dunham	32 / 52	45 / 65	1 / 1	0
2	Nik Lentz	20 / 37	30 / 48	0 / 4	0
2	Evan Dunham	36 / 45	55 / 64	1 / 1	1

Evan Dunham

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17

Nik Lentz

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights22