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Catch Weight

3 Rounds

Herbert Burns won · SUB R1

Elo1385

Elo1483

Evan DunhamvsHerbert BurnsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · Saturday, June 6, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Herbert Burns won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:20

Style matchupEvan Dunham: Submission grapplervsHerbert Burns: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Herbert Burns wins(83.2%)

Actual result: Herbert Burns wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Herbert Burns at -225 American odds

+$44 profit

$144 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Herbert Burns enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Evan Dunham has 20pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Evan Dunham (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Evan Dunham

Red Corner

Herbert Burns

Blue Corner

+185

(35%)

Vegas Odds

-225

(69%)

1385

Elo

1483

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Evan DunhamL2 streak

oldest →

vs Ross Pearson · Jul 15

vs Joe Lauzon · Dec 15

vs Rick Glenn · Sep 16

KOvs Olivier Aubin-Mercier · Apr 18

KOvs Francisco Trinaldo · Sep 18

latest

Herbert BurnsL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nate Landwehr · Jan 20

KOvs Daniel Pineda · Aug 20

KOvs Bill Algeo · Jul 22

KOvs Julio Arce · Mar 24

KOvs Jack Jenkins · Aug 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Evan DunhamMetricHerbert Burns

5.33

Strikes / min

1.86

3.54

Strikes absorbed / min

5.17

61%

Strike defense

41%

1.82

TDs / 15 min

2.94

79%

Takedown defense

66%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.79Δ 5.10 — meaningful gap-3.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Evan DunhamHerbert Burns

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Evan Dunham(10 fights)Herbert Burns(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -98.0|Blue +98.0

Recent Form

Red -1.7|Blue +1.7

Striker Score

Red +3.3|Blue -3.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Layoff

Red +490.0|Blue -490.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Evan DunhamTargetHerbert Burns

By target zone

40% acc · 67%

Head

67% acc · 80%

100% acc · 33%

Body

33% acc · 20%

Leg

0% acc

By position

50% acc · 67%

Distance

50% acc · 80%

50% acc · 33%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

100% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Evan Dunham rounds

even

Herbert Burns rounds

Round 1Herbert Burns edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:05

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:38Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

3 / 6

Sig Strikes

5 / 10

50%

Sig Str %

50%

4 / 7

Total Strikes

8 / 13

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

0:38

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Herbert Burns	5 / 10	8 / 13	1 / 1	1
1	Evan Dunham	3 / 6	4 / 7	0 / 0	0

Evan Dunham

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17

Herbert Burns

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights6