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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Alex White won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1353
Estevan Payan
Elo1492
Alex White

Estevan PayanvsAlex WhiteUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne · Saturday, April 19, 2014Orlando, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Alex White won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:28

Style matchupEstevan Payan: Pressure fightervsAlex White: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Estevan Payan wins(56.7%)

Actual result: Alex White wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Estevan Payan at -115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Alex White is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Estevan Payan has lost 67% of fights by KO.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Alex White (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Estevan Payan
Red Corner
VS
Alex White
Blue Corner
-115
(53%)
Vegas Odds
+105
(49%)
1353
Elo
1492
44
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'10"
Height
6'0"
182.88 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Estevan PayanL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Jeremy Stephens · May 13
L
KOvs Robert Peralta · Dec 13
latest
Alex White
oldest →
W
KOvs Mitch Clarke · Sep 17
L
vs James Krause · Jan 18
L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Sep 18
W
vs Dan Moret · Mar 19
L
vs Rafael Fiziev · Oct 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Estevan PayanMetricAlex White
4.25
Strikes / min
3.76
3.58
Strikes absorbed / min
3.07
57%
Strike defense
60%
0.36
TDs / 15 min
0.92
60%
Takedown defense
71%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.67evenly matched on net striking+0.69

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1468 vs 1500Strikes28.5 vs —Takedowns0.5 vs —Sub Atts0.50 vs —Form-1.0 vs 0.0
Estevan PayanAlex White

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801488149515031510← oldermost recent →
Estevan Payan(3 fights)Alex White(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -138.8|Blue +138.8
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red -49.1|Blue +49.1
Grappler Score
Red -49.9|Blue +49.9
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Estevan PayanTargetAlex White

By target zone

5
29% acc · 50%
Head
12
55% acc · 60%
4
80% acc · 40%
Body
8
100% acc · 40%
1
100% acc · 10%
Leg
0

By position

10
43% acc · 100%
Distance
14
58% acc · 70%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
6
100% acc · 30%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Estevan Payan rounds
0
even
1
Alex White rounds
Round 1Alex White edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
10 / 23
Sig Strikes
20 / 30
43%
Sig Str %
66%
10 / 23
Total Strikes
20 / 30
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:03

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Alex White20 / 3020 / 300 / 00
1Estevan Payan10 / 2310 / 230 / 00

Estevan Payan

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach—
Fights3

Alex White

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights10