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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Loik Radzhabov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1501

Elo1499

Esteban RibovicsvsLoik RadzhabovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Saturday, March 4, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Loik Radzhabov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupEsteban Ribovics: Pressure fightervsLoik Radzhabov: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Esteban Ribovics wins(69.3%)

Actual result: Loik Radzhabov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Esteban Ribovics at -195 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Esteban Ribovics has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Esteban Ribovics

Red Corner

Loik Radzhabov

Blue Corner

-195

(66%)

Vegas Odds

—

1501

Elo

1499

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'11"

175.26 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Esteban Ribovics

oldest →

KOvs Terrance McKinney · May 24

vs Daniel Zellhuber · Sep 24

vs Nasrat Haqparast · Mar 25

vs Elves Brener · Aug 25

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Apr 26

latest

Loik Radzhabov

oldest →

KOvs Mateusz Rebecki · Jun 23

KOvs Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady · Mar 24

vs Trey Ogden · Jul 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Esteban RibovicsMetricLoik Radzhabov

7.27

Strikes / min

2.89

5.83

Strikes absorbed / min

3.76

54%

Strike defense

46%

0.35

TDs / 15 min

4.65

66%

Takedown defense

42%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.44Δ 2.31 — meaningful gap-0.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Esteban RibovicsLoik Radzhabov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Esteban Ribovics(7 fights)Loik Radzhabov(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Esteban RibovicsTargetLoik Radzhabov

By target zone

46% acc · 79%

Head

42% acc · 83%

92% acc · 17%

Body

100% acc · 15%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

49% acc · 92%

Distance

46% acc · 93%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

50% acc · 3%

100% acc · 6%

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Esteban Ribovics rounds

even

Loik Radzhabov rounds

Round 1Loik Radzhabov edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

3:00Control

Round 2Esteban Ribovics edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:04

Knockdowns1

13Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

2:24Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Loik Radzhabov edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:27

19Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:15Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

66 / 129

Sig Strikes

40 / 85

50%

Sig Str %

45%

98 / 162

Total Strikes

67 / 117

0 / 1

TDs

11 / 21

TD %

55.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:31

Ctrl Time

7:39

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Loik Radzhabov	8 / 23	20 / 37	4 / 5	0
1	Esteban Ribovics	14 / 32	19 / 37	0 / 0	0
2	Loik Radzhabov	13 / 28	18 / 33	4 / 9	0
2	Esteban Ribovics	25 / 47	38 / 61	0 / 1	0
3	Loik Radzhabov	19 / 34	29 / 47	3 / 7	0
3	Esteban Ribovics	27 / 50	41 / 64	0 / 0	1

Esteban Ribovics

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6

Loik Radzhabov

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4