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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Eryk Anders won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1512

Elo1394

Eryk AndersvsVinicius MoreiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos · Saturday, June 29, 2019Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA

Official fight result

Eryk Anders won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:18

Style matchupEryk Anders: Well-roundedvsVinicius Moreira: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Vinicius Moreira wins(52.5%)

Actual result: Eryk Anders wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vinicius Moreira at +250 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Vinicius Moreira enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Eryk Anders is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Vinicius Moreira has lost 75% of fights by KO.
Eryk Anders has 80pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Eryk Anders (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Eryk Anders

Red Corner

Vinicius Moreira

Blue Corner

-300

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+250

(29%)

1512

Elo

1394

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'4"

190.5 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Eryk Anders

oldest →

vs Marc-Andre Barriault · Jun 23

vs Jamie Pickett · Mar 24

KOvs Chris Weidman · Dec 24

KOvs Christian Leroy Duncan · Aug 25

vs Brad Tavares · Mar 26

latest

Vinicius MoreiraL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alonzo Menifield · Jan 19

SUBvs Paul Craig · Sep 19

KOvs Ike Villanueva · Jan 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Eryk AndersMetricVinicius Moreira

3.44

Strikes / min

3.15

4.03

Strikes absorbed / min

5.07

50%

Strike defense

43%

1.83

TDs / 15 min

1.97

80%

Takedown defense

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.59Δ 1.33 — meaningful gap-1.92

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Eryk AndersVinicius Moreira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Eryk Anders(10 fights)Vinicius Moreira(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +117.7|Blue -117.7

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +2.4|Blue -2.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -84.0|Blue +84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Eryk AndersTargetVinicius Moreira

By target zone

73% acc · 100%

Head

Body

50% acc · 50%

Leg

100% acc · 50%

By position

63% acc · 45%

Distance

67% acc · 100%

67% acc · 18%

Clinch

100% acc · 36%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Eryk Anders rounds

even

Vinicius Moreira rounds

Round 1Eryk Anders edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:11

Knockdowns1

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:41Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 15

Sig Strikes

2 / 3

73%

Sig Str %

66%

13 / 17

Total Strikes

2 / 3

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 5

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:11

Ctrl Time

0:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Vinicius Moreira	2 / 3	2 / 3	0 / 5	0
1	Eryk Anders	11 / 15	13 / 17	0 / 0	0

Eryk Anders

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights19

Vinicius Moreira

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights4