← All fights/Event page

Middleweight

3 Rounds

Eryk Anders won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1512

Elo1367

Eryk AndersvsTim WilliamsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · Saturday, August 25, 2018Lincoln, Nebraska, USA

Official fight result

Eryk Anders won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:42

Style matchupEryk Anders: Well-roundedvsTim Williams: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Eryk Anders wins(67.3%)

Actual result: Eryk Anders wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Eryk Anders at -1200 American odds

+$8 profit

$108 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Eryk Anders is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Tim Williams has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Tim Williams has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Eryk Anders (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Eryk Anders

Red Corner

Tim Williams

Blue Corner

-1200

(92%)

Vegas Odds

+775

(11%)

1512

Elo

1367

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'2"

190.5 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Eryk Anders

oldest →

vs Marc-Andre Barriault · Jun 23

vs Jamie Pickett · Mar 24

KOvs Chris Weidman · Dec 24

KOvs Christian Leroy Duncan · Aug 25

vs Brad Tavares · Mar 26

latest

Tim Williams

oldest →

KOvs Oskar Piechota · Feb 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Eryk AndersMetricTim Williams

3.44

Strikes / min

3.07

4.03

Strikes absorbed / min

3.55

50%

Strike defense

48%

1.83

TDs / 15 min

1.81

80%

Takedown defense

100%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.59evenly matched on net striking-0.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Eryk AndersTim Williams

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Eryk Anders(10 fights)Tim Williams(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +144.8|Blue -144.8

Recent Form

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Striker Score

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +15.0|Blue -15.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Eryk AndersTargetTim Williams

By target zone

38% acc · 71%

Head

33% acc · 67%

92% acc · 29%

Body

38% acc · 12%

Leg

82% acc · 21%

By position

45% acc · 90%

Distance

38% acc · 88%

57% acc · 10%

Clinch

38% acc · 7%

0% acc

Ground

50% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Eryk Anders rounds

even

Tim Williams rounds

Round 1Tim Williams edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:52Control

Round 2Eryk Anders edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:49

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:40Control

Round 3Eryk Anders edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:22

Knockdowns2

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 93

Sig Strikes

43 / 113

44.3%

Sig Str %

39%

46 / 97

Total Strikes

52 / 126

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 5

TD %

44.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:11

Ctrl Time

1:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Tim Williams	16 / 29	21 / 34	1 / 1
1	Eryk Anders	5 / 12	7 / 14	0 / 0
2	Tim Williams	10 / 38	14 / 45	1 / 3
2	Eryk Anders	23 / 52	25 / 54	0 / 1
3	Tim Williams	17 / 46	17 / 47	0 / 1
3	Eryk Anders	14 / 29	14 / 29	0 / 0

Eryk Anders

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights19

Tim Williams

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights2