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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Eryk Anders won · U-DEC R3

Elo1512

Elo1488

Eryk AndersvsJamie PickettUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · Saturday, March 2, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Eryk Anders won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupEryk Anders: Well-roundedvsJamie Pickett: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Eryk Anders wins(67.0%)

Actual result: Eryk Anders wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Eryk Anders at -535 American odds

+$19 profit

$119 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jamie Pickett enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Eryk Anders (53.5%).
Jamie Pickett has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Eryk Anders

Red Corner

Jamie Pickett

Blue Corner

-535

(84%)

Vegas Odds

+400

(20%)

1512

Elo

1488

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'2"

190.5 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Eryk Anders

oldest →

KOvs Kyle Daukaus · Dec 22

vs Marc-Andre Barriault · Jun 23

KOvs Chris Weidman · Dec 24

KOvs Christian Leroy Duncan · Aug 25

vs Brad Tavares · Mar 26

latest

Jamie PickettL4 streak

oldest →

vs Joseph Holmes · Jan 22

SUBvs Kyle Daukaus · Feb 22

KOvs Denis Tiuliulin · Sep 22

SUBvs Bo Nickal · Mar 23

vs Josh Fremd · Aug 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Eryk AndersMetricJamie Pickett

3.44

Strikes / min

2.65

4.03

Strikes absorbed / min

3.62

50%

Strike defense

50%

1.83

TDs / 15 min

1.26

80%

Takedown defense

67%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.59evenly matched on net striking-0.97

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Eryk AndersJamie Pickett

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Eryk Anders(10 fights)Jamie Pickett(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +23.7|Blue -23.7

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Eryk AndersTargetJamie Pickett

By target zone

29% acc · 61%

Head

24% acc · 55%

78% acc · 30%

Body

89% acc · 40%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

32% acc · 52%

Distance

26% acc · 60%

78% acc · 30%

Clinch

100% acc · 40%

33% acc · 17%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Eryk Anders rounds

even

Jamie Pickett rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control2:42

Knockdowns0

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Eryk Anders edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns2

Control2:57

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Eryk Anders edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns2

Control4:29

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 59

Sig Strikes

20 / 55

38%

Sig Str %

31.7%

83 / 147

Total Strikes

26 / 64

5 / 13

TDs

0 / 0

44%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

10:08

Ctrl Time

0:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jamie Pickett	8 / 19	9 / 21	0 / 0
1	Eryk Anders	7 / 19	20 / 32	1 / 6
2	Jamie Pickett	11 / 24	14 / 28	0 / 0
2	Eryk Anders	10 / 23	33 / 59	2 / 4
3	Jamie Pickett	1 / 12	3 / 15	0 / 0
3	Eryk Anders	6 / 17	30 / 56	2 / 3

Eryk Anders

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights19

Jamie Pickett

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights9