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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Christian Leroy Duncan won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1512

Elo1577

Christian Leroy Duncan editorial illustration

Eryk AndersvsChristian Leroy DuncanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · Saturday, August 9, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Christian Leroy Duncan won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:53

Style matchupEryk Anders: Well-roundedvsChristian Leroy Duncan: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Christian Leroy Duncan wins(68.6%)

Actual result: Christian Leroy Duncan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Christian Leroy Duncan at -490 American odds

+$20 profit

$120 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Eryk Anders enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Christian Leroy Duncan enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Eryk Anders has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Christian Leroy Duncan (54.1%).
Christian Leroy Duncan has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Eryk Anders

Red Corner

Christian Leroy Duncan

Blue Corner

+380

(21%)

Vegas Odds

-490

(83%)

1512

Elo

1577

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

6'1"

Height

6'2"

190.5 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Eryk AndersW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Kyle Daukaus · Dec 22

vs Marc-Andre Barriault · Jun 23

vs Jamie Pickett · Mar 24

KOvs Chris Weidman · Dec 24

vs Brad Tavares · Mar 26

latest

Christian Leroy DuncanW4 streak

oldest →

vs Gregory Rodrigues · Jul 24

vs Andrey Pulyaev · Mar 25

KOvs Marco Tulio · Nov 25

vs Roman Dolidze · Mar 26

DECvs Jared Cannonier · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Eryk AndersMetricChristian Leroy Duncan

3.44

Strikes / min

4.43

4.03

Strikes absorbed / min

2.59

50%

Strike defense

52%

1.83

TDs / 15 min

0.33

80%

Takedown defense

63%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.59Δ 2.43 — meaningful gap+1.84

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Eryk AndersChristian Leroy Duncan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Eryk Anders(10 fights)Christian Leroy Duncan(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -65.3|Blue +65.3

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +105.0|Blue -105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Eryk AndersTargetChristian Leroy Duncan

By target zone

29% acc · 29%

Head

35% acc · 38%

100% acc · 57%

Body

75% acc · 13%

100% acc · 14%

Leg

92% acc · 50%

By position

44% acc · 57%

Distance

54% acc · 83%

100% acc · 43%

Clinch

100% acc · 13%

Ground

33% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Eryk Anders rounds

even

Christian Leroy Duncan rounds

Round 1Christian Leroy Duncan edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control1:18

Knockdowns0

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:39Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 12

Sig Strikes

24 / 43

58%

Sig Str %

55%

18 / 24

Total Strikes

27 / 46

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

33%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:18

Ctrl Time

0:39

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Christian Leroy Duncan	24 / 43	27 / 46	0 / 0	0
1	Eryk Anders	7 / 12	18 / 24	1 / 3	0

Eryk Anders

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights19

Christian Leroy Duncan

StanceSwitch

Height74.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights10