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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Ernesta Kareckaite won · S-DEC R3

Elo1486

Elo1504

Ernesta KareckaitevsNicolle CaliariUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · Saturday, January 11, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ernesta Kareckaite won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupErnesta Kareckaite: Pressure fightervsNicolle Caliari: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Ernesta Kareckaite wins(75.3%)

Actual result: Ernesta Kareckaite wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ernesta Kareckaite at -270 American odds

+$37 profit

$137 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ernesta Kareckaite has 81pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Ernesta Kareckaite has a 23cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Ernesta Kareckaite

Red Corner

Nicolle Caliari

Blue Corner

-270

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+220

(31%)

1486

Elo

1504

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'3"

180.34 cm

Reach

157.48 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ernesta KareckaiteL2 streak

oldest →

vs Dione Barbosa · May 24

vs Regina Tarin · Feb 26

latest

Nicolle Caliari

oldest →

KOvs Carli Judice · Jul 25

SUBvs Shauna Bannon · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ernesta KareckaiteMetricNicolle Caliari

7.28

Strikes / min

3.46

6.47

Strikes absorbed / min

7.01

49%

Strike defense

53%

0.75

TDs / 15 min

2.88

81%

Takedown defense

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.81Δ 4.36 — meaningful gap-3.55

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ernesta KareckaiteNicolle Caliari

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ernesta Kareckaite(3 fights)Nicolle Caliari(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -18.2|Blue +18.2

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.4|Blue +49.4

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ernesta KareckaiteTargetNicolle Caliari

By target zone

39% acc · 81%

Head

30% acc · 54%

69% acc · 19%

Body

63% acc · 33%

0% acc

Leg

82% acc · 13%

By position

41% acc · 92%

Distance

40% acc · 94%

62% acc · 8%

Clinch

60% acc · 4%

Ground

20% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ernesta Kareckaite rounds

even

Nicolle Caliari rounds

Round 1Nicolle Caliari edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:34

21Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:49Control

Round 2Ernesta Kareckaite edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control0:59

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Ernesta Kareckaite edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:45Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

95 / 226

Sig Strikes

67 / 166

41.3%

Sig Str %

41.3%

126 / 266

Total Strikes

86 / 194

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 14

—

TD %

17.7%

Sub Att

Rev

1:33

Ctrl Time

3:34

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Nicolle Caliari	21 / 41	25 / 45	2 / 7
1	Ernesta Kareckaite	27 / 63	35 / 71	0 / 0
2	Nicolle Caliari	24 / 66	28 / 72	0 / 3
2	Ernesta Kareckaite	36 / 86	45 / 98	0 / 0
3	Nicolle Caliari	22 / 59	33 / 77	1 / 4
3	Ernesta Kareckaite	32 / 77	46 / 97	0 / 0

Ernesta Kareckaite

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights3

Nicolle Caliari

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights2