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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Ernest Chavez won · S-DEC R3

Elo1354

Elo1355

Ernest ChavezvsYosdenis CedenoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann · Saturday, February 22, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ernest Chavez won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Yosdenis Cedeno wins(50.5%)

Actual result: Ernest Chavez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yosdenis Cedeno at -305 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Yosdenis Cedeno is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Ernest Chavez has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Ernest Chavez has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Ernest Chavez

Red Corner

Yosdenis Cedeno

Blue Corner

+275

(27%)

Vegas Odds

-305

(75%)

1354

Elo

1355

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ernest ChavezL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Elias Silverio · May 14

KOvs Zubaira Tukhugov · Oct 14

latest

Yosdenis CedenoL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jerrod Sanders · Jul 14

vs Chad Laprise · Oct 14

vs Cody Pfister · Jul 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ernest ChavezMetricYosdenis Cedeno

2.79

Strikes / min

1.64

3.89

Strikes absorbed / min

1.60

59%

Strike defense

67%

0.89

TDs / 15 min

0.00

50%

Takedown defense

31%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.10Δ 1.14 — meaningful gap+0.04

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ernest Chavez(3 fights)Yosdenis Cedeno(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ernest ChavezTargetYosdenis Cedeno

By target zone

33% acc · 46%

Head

20% acc · 50%

75% acc · 21%

Body

38% acc · 12%

60% acc · 32%

Leg

91% acc · 38%

By position

41% acc · 82%

Distance

30% acc · 92%

100% acc · 14%

Clinch

67% acc · 8%

50% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ernest Chavez rounds

even

Yosdenis Cedeno rounds

Round 1Ernest Chavez edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control1:24

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 2Ernest Chavez edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control2:23

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:44

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:21Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 62

Sig Strikes

26 / 83

44.7%

Sig Str %

34.3%

94 / 133

Total Strikes

27 / 84

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 1

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:31

Ctrl Time

0:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Yosdenis Cedeno	7 / 23	7 / 23	0 / 0
1	Ernest Chavez	6 / 18	17 / 30	1 / 1
2	Yosdenis Cedeno	6 / 13	6 / 13	0 / 1
2	Ernest Chavez	8 / 15	41 / 48	1 / 1
3	Yosdenis Cedeno	13 / 47	14 / 48	0 / 0
3	Ernest Chavez	14 / 29	36 / 55	0 / 0

Ernest Chavez

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights3

Yosdenis Cedeno

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4