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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Erin Blanchfield won · SUB R2

Elo1529

Elo1484

Erin BlanchfieldvsTracy CortezUFC Prediction Result

UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · Saturday, November 15, 2025New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Erin Blanchfield won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:44

Style matchupErin Blanchfield: Pressure fightervsTracy Cortez: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Erin Blanchfield wins(71.2%)

Actual result: Erin Blanchfield wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Erin Blanchfield at -330 American odds

+$30 profit

$130 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Erin Blanchfield threatens submissions; Tracy Cortez has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Erin Blanchfield has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Erin Blanchfield

Red Corner

Tracy Cortez

Blue Corner

-330

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+265

(27%)

1529

Elo

1484

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'5"

167.64 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Erin Blanchfield

oldest →

SUBvs Molly McCann · Nov 22

SUBvs Jessica Andrade · Feb 23

vs Taila Santos · Aug 23

vs Manon Fiorot · Mar 24

vs Rose Namajunas · Nov 24

latest

Tracy Cortez

oldest →

vs Melissa Gatto · May 22

vs Jasmine Jasudavicius · Sep 23

vs Rose Namajunas · Jul 24

vs Viviane Araujo · Jun 25

DECvs Wang Cong · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Erin BlanchfieldMetricTracy Cortez

5.24

Strikes / min

3.86

4.25

Strikes absorbed / min

3.01

58%

Strike defense

57%

1.96

TDs / 15 min

2.15

78%

Takedown defense

59%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.99evenly matched on net striking+0.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Erin BlanchfieldTracy Cortez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Erin Blanchfield(9 fights)Tracy Cortez(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +45.0|Blue -45.0

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +238.0|Blue -238.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Erin BlanchfieldTargetTracy Cortez

By target zone

38% acc · 73%

Head

40% acc · 76%

75% acc · 12%

Body

58% acc · 15%

100% acc · 15%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

44% acc · 98%

Distance

45% acc · 98%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

25% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Erin Blanchfield rounds

even

Tracy Cortez rounds

Round 1Erin Blanchfield edged it

Sig. strikes43

Takedowns0

Control0:00

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Erin Blanchfield edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control2:43

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:30Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

52 / 116

Sig Strikes

46 / 104

41.5%

Sig Str %

46%

65 / 134

Total Strikes

50 / 108

2 / 3

TDs

1 / 3

66%

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

2:43

Ctrl Time

0:30

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tracy Cortez	32 / 76	33 / 77	0 / 1	0
1	Erin Blanchfield	43 / 92	43 / 92	0 / 0	0
2	Tracy Cortez	14 / 28	17 / 31	1 / 2	0
2	Erin Blanchfield	9 / 24	22 / 42	2 / 3	1

Erin Blanchfield

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights9

Tracy Cortez

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights9