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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Erin Blanchfield won · U-DEC R3

Elo1529

Elo1477

Erin BlanchfieldvsTaila SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · Saturday, August 26, 2023Kallang, Singapore

Official fight result

Erin Blanchfield won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupErin Blanchfield: Pressure fightervsTaila Santos: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Erin Blanchfield wins(80.5%)

Actual result: Erin Blanchfield wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Erin Blanchfield at -166 American odds

+$60 profit

$160 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Erin Blanchfield

Red Corner

Taila Santos

Blue Corner

-166

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1529

Elo

1477

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'6"

167.64 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Erin BlanchfieldW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Molly McCann · Nov 22

SUBvs Jessica Andrade · Feb 23

vs Manon Fiorot · Mar 24

vs Rose Namajunas · Nov 24

SUBvs Tracy Cortez · Nov 25

latest

Taila Santos

oldest →

vs Molly McCann · Jul 20

vs Gillian Robertson · Dec 20

vs Roxanne Modafferi · Sep 21

SUBvs Joanne Wood · Nov 21

vs Valentina Shevchenko · Jun 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Erin BlanchfieldMetricTaila Santos

5.24

Strikes / min

3.39

4.25

Strikes absorbed / min

2.64

58%

Strike defense

58%

1.96

TDs / 15 min

2.00

78%

Takedown defense

86%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.99evenly matched on net striking+0.75

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Erin BlanchfieldTaila Santos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Erin Blanchfield(9 fights)Taila Santos(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +51.7|Blue -51.7

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -252.0|Blue +252.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Erin BlanchfieldTargetTaila Santos

By target zone

37% acc · 61%

Head

24% acc · 51%

78% acc · 30%

Body

60% acc · 16%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 33%

By position

42% acc · 70%

Distance

35% acc · 84%

71% acc · 28%

Clinch

50% acc · 16%

50% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Erin Blanchfield rounds

even

Taila Santos rounds

Round 1Erin Blanchfield edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control1:22

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 2Erin Blanchfield edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control4:01

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 3Erin Blanchfield edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control2:45

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

61 / 128

Sig Strikes

55 / 151

48%

Sig Str %

37.7%

119 / 210

Total Strikes

96 / 202

0 / 14

TDs

0 / 3

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

8:08

Ctrl Time

0:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Taila Santos	25 / 71	31 / 80	0 / 0
1	Erin Blanchfield	26 / 55	36 / 69	0 / 4
2	Taila Santos	11 / 24	32 / 48	0 / 1
2	Erin Blanchfield	9 / 18	34 / 58	0 / 4
3	Taila Santos	19 / 56	33 / 74	0 / 2
3	Erin Blanchfield	26 / 55	49 / 83	0 / 6

Erin Blanchfield

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights9

Taila Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights7