← All fights/Event page

Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Erin Blanchfield won · U-DEC R3

Elo1529

Elo1408

Erin BlanchfieldvsSarah AlparUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann · Saturday, September 18, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Erin Blanchfield won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Erin Blanchfield wins(74.1%)

Actual result: Erin Blanchfield wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Erin Blanchfield at -435 American odds

+$23 profit

$123 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Erin Blanchfield has 20pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Erin Blanchfield has 58pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Sarah Alpar (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Erin Blanchfield

Red Corner

Sarah Alpar

Blue Corner

-435

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+330

(23%)

1529

Elo

1408

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'4"

Height

5'4"

167.64 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Erin BlanchfieldW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Jessica Andrade · Feb 23

vs Taila Santos · Aug 23

vs Manon Fiorot · Mar 24

vs Rose Namajunas · Nov 24

SUBvs Tracy Cortez · Nov 25

latest

Sarah Alpar

oldest →

KOvs Jessica-Rose Clark · Sep 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Erin BlanchfieldMetricSarah Alpar

5.24

Strikes / min

2.36

4.25

Strikes absorbed / min

6.06

58%

Strike defense

38%

1.96

TDs / 15 min

1.61

78%

Takedown defense

20%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.99Δ 4.69 — meaningful gap-3.70

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Erin BlanchfieldSarah Alpar

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Erin Blanchfield(9 fights)Sarah Alpar(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +120.8|Blue -120.8

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +49.5|Blue -49.5

Grappler Score

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Erin BlanchfieldTargetSarah Alpar

By target zone

52% acc · 78%

Head

25% acc · 54%

88% acc · 13%

Body

62% acc · 20%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

85% acc · 27%

By position

44% acc · 44%

Distance

36% acc · 98%

100% acc · 8%

Clinch

33% acc · 2%

72% acc · 48%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Erin Blanchfield rounds

even

Sarah Alpar rounds

Round 1Erin Blanchfield edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns1

Control2:55

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Erin Blanchfield edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns1

Control3:37

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Erin Blanchfield edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns1

Control3:11

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

120 / 210

Sig Strikes

41 / 113

57%

Sig Str %

36.3%

198 / 318

Total Strikes

45 / 120

3 / 3

TDs

0 / 1

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

9:43

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Sarah Alpar	13 / 46	17 / 52	0 / 1
1	Erin Blanchfield	41 / 78	73 / 120	1 / 1
2	Sarah Alpar	10 / 26	10 / 27	0 / 0
2	Erin Blanchfield	41 / 69	63 / 100	1 / 1
3	Sarah Alpar	18 / 41	18 / 41	0 / 0
3	Erin Blanchfield	38 / 63	62 / 98	1 / 1

Erin Blanchfield

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights9

Sarah Alpar

StanceSouthpaw

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights2