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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Erin Blanchfield won · U-DEC R5

Elo1529

Elo1499

Erin BlanchfieldvsRose NamajunasUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · Saturday, November 2, 2024Edmonton, Alberta, Canada

Official fight result

Erin Blanchfield won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupErin Blanchfield: Pressure fightervsRose Namajunas: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Erin Blanchfield wins(76.9%)

Actual result: Erin Blanchfield wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Erin Blanchfield at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Erin Blanchfield has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Erin Blanchfield

Red Corner

Rose Namajunas

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1529

Elo

1499

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'5"

167.64 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Erin Blanchfield

oldest →

SUBvs Molly McCann · Nov 22

SUBvs Jessica Andrade · Feb 23

vs Taila Santos · Aug 23

vs Manon Fiorot · Mar 24

SUBvs Tracy Cortez · Nov 25

latest

Rose Namajunas

oldest →

vs Manon Fiorot · Sep 23

vs Amanda Ribas · Mar 24

vs Tracy Cortez · Jul 24

vs Miranda Maverick · Jun 25

vs Natalia Silva · Jan 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Erin BlanchfieldMetricRose Namajunas

5.24

Strikes / min

3.50

4.25

Strikes absorbed / min

3.38

58%

Strike defense

63%

1.96

TDs / 15 min

1.47

78%

Takedown defense

62%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.99evenly matched on net striking+0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Erin BlanchfieldRose Namajunas

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Erin Blanchfield(9 fights)Rose Namajunas(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +29.6|Blue -29.6

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +105.0|Blue -105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Erin BlanchfieldTargetRose Namajunas

By target zone

33% acc · 74%

Head

32% acc · 72%

94% acc · 14%

Body

75% acc · 19%

82% acc · 13%

Leg

89% acc · 9%

By position

103

38% acc · 94%

Distance

38% acc · 97%

33% acc · 2%

Clinch

75% acc · 3%

83% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Erin Blanchfield rounds

even

Rose Namajunas rounds

Round 1Rose Namajunas edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:15

23Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 3Erin Blanchfield edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control3:38

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Erin Blanchfield edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns0

Control0:53

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 5Erin Blanchfield edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control4:08

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

110 / 281

Sig Strikes

94 / 245

41.2%

Sig Str %

38.6%

193 / 387

Total Strikes

101 / 254

2 / 8

TDs

1 / 4

20.8%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

8:54

Ctrl Time

0:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rose Namajunas	30 / 61	30 / 61	0 / 0
1	Erin Blanchfield	19 / 68	19 / 68	0 / 0
2	Rose Namajunas	23 / 65	26 / 69	1 / 1
2	Erin Blanchfield	25 / 67	28 / 70	0 / 2
3	Rose Namajunas	9 / 21	10 / 22	0 / 1
3	Erin Blanchfield	11 / 28	48 / 82	1 / 2
4	Rose Namajunas	25 / 79	25 / 80	0 / 0
4	Erin Blanchfield	40 / 93	43 / 97	0 / 1
5	Erin Blanchfield	15 / 25	55 / 70	1 / 3
5	Rose Namajunas	7 / 19	10 / 22	0 / 2

Erin Blanchfield

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights9

Rose Namajunas

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights19