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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Erin Blanchfield won · SUB R1

Elo1529

Elo1491

Erin BlanchfieldvsMolly McCannUFC Prediction Result

UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Saturday, November 12, 2022New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Erin Blanchfield won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:37

Style matchupErin Blanchfield: Pressure fightervsMolly McCann: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Erin Blanchfield wins(76.8%)

Actual result: Erin Blanchfield wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Erin Blanchfield at -425 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Erin Blanchfield threatens submissions; Molly McCann has lost 57% of fights by sub.
Erin Blanchfield has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Erin Blanchfield has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Erin Blanchfield

Red Corner

Molly McCann

Blue Corner

-425

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+340

(23%)

1529

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'4"

167.64 cm

Reach

157.48 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Erin BlanchfieldW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Jessica Andrade · Feb 23

vs Taila Santos · Aug 23

vs Manon Fiorot · Mar 24

vs Rose Namajunas · Nov 24

SUBvs Tracy Cortez · Nov 25

latest

Molly McCannL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Hannah Goldy · Jul 22

SUBvs Julija Stoliarenko · Jul 23

SUBvs Diana Belbita · Feb 24

vs Bruna Brasil · Jul 24

SUBvs Alexia Thainara · Mar 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Erin BlanchfieldMetricMolly McCann

5.24

Strikes / min

5.28

4.25

Strikes absorbed / min

4.65

58%

Strike defense

62%

1.96

TDs / 15 min

1.78

78%

Takedown defense

38%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.99evenly matched on net striking+0.63

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Erin BlanchfieldMolly McCann

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Erin Blanchfield(9 fights)Molly McCann(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +37.2|Blue -37.2

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Erin BlanchfieldTargetMolly McCann

By target zone

65% acc · 88%

Head

29% acc · 29%

50% acc · 4%

Body

100% acc · 43%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

67% acc · 29%

By position

37% acc · 28%

Distance

54% acc · 100%

Clinch

95% acc · 72%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Erin Blanchfield rounds

even

Molly McCann rounds

Round 1Erin Blanchfield edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns1

Control2:48

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 38

Sig Strikes

7 / 13

65%

Sig Str %

53%

93 / 115

Total Strikes

7 / 13

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:48

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Molly McCann	7 / 13	7 / 13	0 / 0	0
1	Erin Blanchfield	25 / 38	93 / 115	1 / 1	2

Erin Blanchfield

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights9

Molly McCann

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights14