Featherweight

3 Rounds

Muhammad Naimov won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1463

Elo1514

Erik SilvavsMuhammad NaimovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · Saturday, February 24, 2024Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Muhammad Naimov won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:44

Style matchupErik Silva: WrestlervsMuhammad Naimov: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Muhammad Naimov wins(80.5%)

Actual result: Muhammad Naimov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Muhammad Naimov at -550 American odds

+$18 profit

$118 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Erik Silva

Red Corner

Muhammad Naimov

Blue Corner

+410

(20%)

Vegas Odds

-550

(85%)

1463

Elo

1514

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Erik SilvaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs TJ Brown · Dec 22

SUBvs Francis Marshall · Feb 26

latest

Muhammad Naimov

oldest →

vs Nathaniel Wood · Oct 23

SUBvs Felipe Lima · Jun 24

vs Kaan Ofli · Feb 25

vs Bogdan Grad · Jun 25

KOvs Mairon Santos · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Erik SilvaMetricMuhammad Naimov

2.06

Strikes / min

2.51

1.52

Strikes absorbed / min

3.35

40%

Strike defense

44%

3.26

TDs / 15 min

1.49

60%

Takedown defense

68%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.54Δ 1.38 — meaningful gap-0.84

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Erik SilvaMuhammad Naimov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Erik Silva(3 fights)Muhammad Naimov(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -50.1|Blue +50.1

Recent Form

Red -2.0|Blue +2.0

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +315.0|Blue -315.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Erik SilvaTargetMuhammad Naimov

By target zone

Head

50% acc · 100%

Body

0% acc

Leg

By position

0% acc

Distance

50% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Erik Silva rounds

even

Muhammad Naimov rounds

Round 1Muhammad Naimov edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:13

1Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:11Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0 / 1

Sig Strikes

1 / 2

Sig Str %

50%

0 / 1

Total Strikes

3 / 4

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:13

Ctrl Time

0:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Muhammad Naimov	1 / 2	3 / 4	1 / 1	0
1	Erik Silva	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0

Erik Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights3

Muhammad Naimov

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7