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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Erik Perez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1510

Erik PerezvsTaylor LapilusUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gastelum · Saturday, November 21, 2015Monterrey, Nuevo Leon, Mexico

Official fight result

Erik Perez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupErik Perez: WrestlervsTaylor Lapilus: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Taylor Lapilus wins(60.4%)

Actual result: Erik Perez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Taylor Lapilus at +130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Taylor Lapilus (53.5%).
Taylor Lapilus has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Erik Perez

Red Corner

Taylor Lapilus

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1491

Elo

1510

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'6"

172.72 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Erik PerezW2 streak

oldest →

vs Takeya Mizugaki · Aug 13

vs Edwin Figueroa · Nov 13

SUBvs Bryan Caraway · Jun 14

vs Francisco Rivera · Jul 16

vs Felipe Arantes · Nov 16

latest

Taylor LapilusW2 streak

oldest →

vs Leandro Issa · Sep 16

vs Caolan Loughran · Sep 23

vs Farid Basharat · Jan 24

vs Cody Stamann · Jun 24

vs Vince Morales · Sep 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Erik PerezMetricTaylor Lapilus

3.16

Strikes / min

4.59

2.09

Strikes absorbed / min

2.61

66%

Strike defense

62%

3.16

TDs / 15 min

0.27

69%

Takedown defense

77%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.07evenly matched on net striking+1.98

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Erik PerezTaylor Lapilus

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Erik Perez(9 fights)Taylor Lapilus(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -19.7|Blue +19.7

Recent Form

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Striker Score

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +378.0|Blue -378.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Erik PerezTargetTaylor Lapilus

By target zone

25% acc · 55%

Head

18% acc · 60%

67% acc · 45%

Body

80% acc · 20%

0% acc

Leg

50% acc · 20%

By position

23% acc · 55%

Distance

24% acc · 90%

50% acc · 6%

Clinch

100% acc · 10%

80% acc · 39%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Erik Perez rounds

even

Taylor Lapilus rounds

Round 1Taylor Lapilus edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 2Taylor Lapilus edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:41Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Erik Perez edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control0:00

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:27Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 92

Sig Strikes

20 / 78

38%

Sig Str %

20.7%

109 / 172

Total Strikes

23 / 82

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 1

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

7:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Taylor Lapilus	15 / 45	15 / 45	0 / 0	0
1	Erik Perez	10 / 48	10 / 48	0 / 0	0
2	Taylor Lapilus	3 / 16	4 / 17	0 / 0	1
2	Erik Perez	13 / 25	57 / 70	0 / 0	0
3	Taylor Lapilus	2 / 17	4 / 20	0 / 1	0
3	Erik Perez	8 / 19	42 / 54	1 / 2	0

Erik Perez

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights9

Taylor Lapilus

StanceSouthpaw

Height66.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8