Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Erik Perez won · S-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1366

Erik PerezvsFelipe ArantesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson · Saturday, November 5, 2016Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Erik Perez won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Erik Perez wins(61.1%)

Actual result: Erik Perez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Erik Perez at -240 American odds

+$42 profit

$142 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Felipe Arantes threatens submissions; Erik Perez has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Erik Perez has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Felipe Arantes has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Erik Perez

Red Corner

Felipe Arantes

Blue Corner

-240

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+200

(33%)

1491

Elo

1366

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'8"

172.72 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Erik PerezW2 streak

oldest →

vs Takeya Mizugaki · Aug 13

vs Edwin Figueroa · Nov 13

SUBvs Bryan Caraway · Jun 14

vs Taylor Lapilus · Nov 15

vs Francisco Rivera · Jul 16

latest

Felipe ArantesL2 streak

oldest →

vs Andre Fili · Oct 14

SUBvs Yves Jabouin · Aug 15

SUBvs Jerrod Sanders · Jul 16

vs Josh Emmett · Oct 17

KOvs Song Yadong · Jun 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Erik PerezMetricFelipe Arantes

3.16

Strikes / min

2.37

2.09

Strikes absorbed / min

2.66

66%

Strike defense

64%

3.16

TDs / 15 min

0.93

69%

Takedown defense

41%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.07Δ 1.36 — meaningful gap-0.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Erik PerezFelipe Arantes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Erik Perez(9 fights)Felipe Arantes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +124.7|Blue -124.7

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -23.0|Blue +23.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Erik PerezTargetFelipe Arantes

By target zone

27% acc · 58%

Head

38% acc · 53%

80% acc · 33%

Body

63% acc · 15%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

92% acc · 32%

By position

18% acc · 31%

Distance

48% acc · 88%

0% acc

Clinch

50% acc · 3%

74% acc · 69%

Ground

75% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Erik Perez rounds

even

Felipe Arantes rounds

Round 1Erik Perez edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control1:51

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:36Control

Round 2Erik Perez edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control3:15

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:54Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control2:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:25Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 96

Sig Strikes

34 / 68

37.3%

Sig Str %

49.3%

103 / 177

Total Strikes

42 / 76

3 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

77.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:06

Ctrl Time

1:55

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Felipe Arantes	15 / 22	19 / 26	0 / 0	1
1	Erik Perez	21 / 43	30 / 55	1 / 1	0
2	Felipe Arantes	7 / 18	9 / 20	0 / 0	0
2	Erik Perez	11 / 21	47 / 65	1 / 1	0
3	Felipe Arantes	12 / 28	14 / 30	0 / 0	1
3	Erik Perez	4 / 32	26 / 57	1 / 3	0

Erik Perez

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights9

Felipe Arantes

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights11