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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Erik Perez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1353

Erik PerezvsEdwin FigueroaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks · Saturday, November 16, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Erik Perez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Erik Perez wins(53.3%)

Actual result: Erik Perez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Erik Perez at -425 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Erik Perez enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Erik Perez has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Erik Perez has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Erik Perez

Red Corner

Edwin Figueroa

Blue Corner

-425

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+378

(21%)

1491

Elo

1353

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'7"

172.72 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Erik PerezW3 streak

oldest →

vs Takeya Mizugaki · Aug 13

SUBvs Bryan Caraway · Jun 14

vs Taylor Lapilus · Nov 15

vs Francisco Rivera · Jul 16

vs Felipe Arantes · Nov 16

latest

Edwin FigueroaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Michael McDonald · Mar 11

KOvs Jason Reinhardt · Aug 11

vs Alex Caceres · Feb 12

KOvs Francisco Rivera · Feb 13

vs Roland Delorme · Jun 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Erik PerezMetricEdwin Figueroa

3.16

Strikes / min

2.57

2.09

Strikes absorbed / min

3.06

66%

Strike defense

51%

3.16

TDs / 15 min

0.20

69%

Takedown defense

37%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.07Δ 1.56 — meaningful gap-0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Erik PerezEdwin Figueroa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Erik Perez(9 fights)Edwin Figueroa(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +138.1|Blue -138.1

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -74.0|Blue +74.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Erik PerezTargetEdwin Figueroa

By target zone

36% acc · 50%

Head

18% acc · 72%

59% acc · 26%

Body

56% acc · 28%

75% acc · 24%

Leg

0% acc

By position

38% acc · 58%

Distance

23% acc · 100%

50% acc · 14%

Clinch

0% acc

78% acc · 28%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Erik Perez rounds

even

Edwin Figueroa rounds

Round 1Erik Perez edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns3

Control2:35

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Erik Perez edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns2

Control3:31

Knockdowns1

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Erik Perez edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns2

Control2:28

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

50 / 108

Sig Strikes

18 / 85

46.7%

Sig Str %

20.7%

120 / 178

Total Strikes

21 / 88

7 / 8

TDs

0 / 0

88.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

8:34

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Edwin Figueroa	7 / 26	9 / 28	0 / 0
1	Erik Perez	16 / 40	35 / 59	3 / 3
2	Edwin Figueroa	8 / 30	8 / 30	0 / 0
2	Erik Perez	20 / 32	39 / 51	2 / 3
3	Edwin Figueroa	3 / 29	4 / 30	0 / 0
3	Erik Perez	14 / 36	46 / 68	2 / 2

Erik Perez

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights9

Edwin Figueroa

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6