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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Bryan Caraway won · SUB R2

Elo1491

Elo1369

Erik PerezvsBryan CarawayUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Khabilov · Saturday, June 7, 2014Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA

Official fight result

Bryan Caraway won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:52

Style matchupErik Perez: WrestlervsBryan Caraway: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Erik Perez wins(57.6%)

Actual result: Bryan Caraway wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Erik Perez at -120 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Erik Perez enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Bryan Caraway threatens submissions; Erik Perez has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Erik Perez has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Erik Perez

Red Corner

Bryan Caraway

Blue Corner

-120

(55%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1491

Elo

1369

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'8"

172.72 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Erik PerezW4 streak

oldest →

vs Takeya Mizugaki · Aug 13

vs Edwin Figueroa · Nov 13

vs Taylor Lapilus · Nov 15

vs Francisco Rivera · Jul 16

vs Felipe Arantes · Nov 16

latest

Bryan CarawayL2 streak

oldest →

vs Raphael Assuncao · Oct 14

vs Eddie Wineland · Jul 15

vs Aljamain Sterling · May 16

vs Cody Stamann · Mar 18

KOvs Pedro Munhoz · Nov 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Erik PerezMetricBryan Caraway

3.16

Strikes / min

2.53

2.09

Strikes absorbed / min

3.61

66%

Strike defense

54%

3.16

TDs / 15 min

2.57

69%

Takedown defense

80%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.07Δ 2.15 — meaningful gap-1.08

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Erik PerezBryan Caraway

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Erik Perez(9 fights)Bryan Caraway(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +121.6|Blue -121.6

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red -203.0|Blue +203.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Erik PerezTargetBryan Caraway

By target zone

20% acc · 70%

Head

16% acc · 71%

40% acc · 20%

Body

67% acc · 29%

50% acc · 10%

Leg

By position

26% acc · 100%

Distance

17% acc · 71%

0% acc

Clinch

33% acc · 29%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Erik Perez rounds

even

Bryan Caraway rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control1:33

5Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:11Control

Round 2Bryan Caraway edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:28Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 42

Sig Strikes

7 / 35

22%

Sig Str %

20.5%

21 / 55

Total Strikes

17 / 46

1 / 2

TDs

2 / 4

50%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:33

Ctrl Time

2:39

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Bryan Caraway	5 / 26	6 / 27	2 / 4	1
1	Erik Perez	9 / 37	20 / 50	1 / 1	0
2	Bryan Caraway	2 / 9	11 / 19	0 / 0	1
2	Erik Perez	1 / 5	1 / 5	0 / 1	0

Erik Perez

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights9

Bryan Caraway

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights10