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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Erik Koch won · SUB R2

Elo1492

Elo1358

Erik KochvsShane CampbellUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · Sunday, May 29, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Erik Koch won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:02

Style matchupErik Koch: Submission grapplervsShane Campbell: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Shane Campbell wins(62.8%)

Actual result: Erik Koch wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Shane Campbell at -140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Erik Koch (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Erik Koch

Red Corner

Shane Campbell

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-140

(58%)

1492

Elo

1358

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'0"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Erik Koch

oldest →

KOvs Rafaello Oliveira · Feb 14

KOvs Daron Cruickshank · May 14

vs Clay Guida · Jun 17

vs Bobby Green · Jan 18

vs Kyle Stewart · Jul 19

latest

Shane CampbellL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs John Makdessi · Apr 15

vs Elias Silverio · Aug 15

vs James Krause · Feb 16

KOvs Felipe Silva · Aug 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Erik KochMetricShane Campbell

2.33

Strikes / min

3.99

2.82

Strikes absorbed / min

3.19

47%

Strike defense

55%

1.02

TDs / 15 min

1.36

81%

Takedown defense

82%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.49Δ 1.29 — meaningful gap+0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Erik KochShane Campbell

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Erik Koch(10 fights)Shane Campbell(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +134.0|Blue -134.0

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +652.0|Blue -652.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Erik KochTargetShane Campbell

By target zone

30% acc · 79%

Head

20% acc · 13%

100% acc · 14%

Body

75% acc · 38%

100% acc · 7%

Leg

100% acc · 50%

By position

28% acc · 71%

Distance

62% acc · 81%

100% acc · 21%

Clinch

60% acc · 19%

100% acc · 7%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Erik Koch rounds

even

Shane Campbell rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control1:25

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:05Control

Round 2Erik Koch edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns1

Control2:50

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 40

Sig Strikes

16 / 26

34%

Sig Str %

49%

22 / 50

Total Strikes

34 / 46

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 3

66.5%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:15

Ctrl Time

1:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Shane Campbell	15 / 23	28 / 38	0 / 3	0
1	Erik Koch	13 / 37	14 / 38	1 / 3	0
2	Shane Campbell	1 / 3	6 / 8	0 / 0	0
2	Erik Koch	1 / 3	8 / 12	1 / 1	1

Erik Koch

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10

Shane Campbell

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights5