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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Ricardo Lamas won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1492

Elo1493

Erik KochvsRicardo LamasUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson · Saturday, January 26, 2013Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Ricardo Lamas won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:32

Model Prediction: Ricardo Lamas wins(60.8%)

Actual result: Ricardo Lamas wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ricardo Lamas at +205 American odds

+$205 profit

$305 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ricardo Lamas has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Erik Koch has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Erik Koch (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Erik Koch

Red Corner

Ricardo Lamas

Blue Corner

-225

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+205

(33%)

1492

Elo

1493

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Erik Koch

oldest →

KOvs Daron Cruickshank · May 14

SUBvs Shane Campbell · May 16

vs Clay Guida · Jun 17

vs Bobby Green · Jan 18

vs Kyle Stewart · Jul 19

latest

Ricardo Lamas

oldest →

KOvs Josh Emmett · Dec 17

vs Mirsad Bektic · Jun 18

KOvs Darren Elkins · Nov 18

KOvs Calvin Kattar · Jun 19

vs Bill Algeo · Aug 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Erik KochMetricRicardo Lamas

2.33

Strikes / min

3.13

2.82

Strikes absorbed / min

2.87

47%

Strike defense

57%

1.02

TDs / 15 min

1.84

81%

Takedown defense

46%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.49evenly matched on net striking+0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Erik KochRicardo Lamas

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Erik Koch(10 fights)Ricardo Lamas(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +279.0|Blue -279.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Erik KochTargetRicardo Lamas

By target zone

24% acc · 64%

Head

50% acc · 56%

67% acc · 14%

Body

78% acc · 22%

75% acc · 21%

Leg

64% acc · 22%

By position

29% acc · 86%

Distance

34% acc · 31%

100% acc · 14%

Clinch

100% acc · 22%

Ground

75% acc · 47%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Erik Koch rounds

even

Ricardo Lamas rounds

Round 1Ricardo Lamas edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:08

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:13Control

Round 2Ricardo Lamas edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:12

21Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:03Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 44

Sig Strikes

32 / 56

32%

Sig Str %

56.5%

25 / 55

Total Strikes

40 / 65

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 8

—

TD %

57%

Sub Att

Rev

0:20

Ctrl Time

3:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ricardo Lamas	11 / 20	16 / 26	1 / 7
1	Erik Koch	7 / 25	16 / 34	0 / 0
2	Ricardo Lamas	21 / 36	24 / 39	1 / 1
2	Erik Koch	7 / 19	9 / 21	0 / 0

Erik Koch

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10

Ricardo Lamas

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights17