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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Erik Koch won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1492

Elo1496

Erik KochvsRaphael AssuncaoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones · Saturday, March 19, 2011Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Erik Koch won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:32

Style matchupErik Koch: Submission grapplervsRaphael Assuncao: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Raphael Assuncao wins(50.6%)

Actual result: Erik Koch wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Raphael Assuncao at +145 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Raphael Assuncao has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Erik Koch (53.5%).
Erik Koch has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Erik Koch

Red Corner

Raphael Assuncao

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1492

Elo

1496

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'5"

180.34 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Erik Koch

oldest →

KOvs Daron Cruickshank · May 14

SUBvs Shane Campbell · May 16

vs Clay Guida · Jun 17

vs Bobby Green · Jan 18

vs Kyle Stewart · Jul 19

latest

Raphael Assuncao

oldest →

vs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 19

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Jun 20

KOvs Ricky Simon · Dec 21

vs Victor Henry · Oct 22

SUBvs Davey Grant · Mar 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Erik KochMetricRaphael Assuncao

2.33

Strikes / min

3.22

2.82

Strikes absorbed / min

2.50

47%

Strike defense

66%

1.02

TDs / 15 min

1.65

81%

Takedown defense

78%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.49Δ 1.21 — meaningful gap+0.72

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Erik Koch(10 fights)Raphael Assuncao(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.8|Blue +3.8

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Erik KochTargetRaphael Assuncao

By target zone

13% acc · 50%

Head

25% acc · 33%

100% acc · 25%

Body

75% acc · 33%

100% acc · 25%

Leg

75% acc · 33%

By position

22% acc · 100%

Distance

45% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Erik Koch rounds

even

Raphael Assuncao rounds

Round 1Erik Koch edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 18

Sig Strikes

9 / 20

22%

Sig Str %

45%

5 / 19

Total Strikes

9 / 20

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Raphael Assuncao	9 / 20	9 / 20	0 / 0	0
1	Erik Koch	4 / 18	5 / 19	0 / 0	0

Erik Koch

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10

Raphael Assuncao

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights19