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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Erik Koch won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1375

Erik KochvsKyle StewartUFC Prediction Result

UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar · Saturday, July 27, 2019Edmonton, Alberta, Canada

Official fight result

Erik Koch won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Erik Koch wins(69.8%)

Actual result: Erik Koch wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Erik Koch at -140 American odds

+$71 profit

$171 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Erik Koch has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Erik Koch (53.5%).
Kyle Stewart has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Erik Koch

Red Corner

Kyle Stewart

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1492

Elo

1375

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'0"

180.34 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Erik KochL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Rafaello Oliveira · Feb 14

KOvs Daron Cruickshank · May 14

SUBvs Shane Campbell · May 16

vs Clay Guida · Jun 17

vs Bobby Green · Jan 18

latest

Kyle Stewart

oldest →

SUBvs Chance Rencountre · Jan 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Erik KochMetricKyle Stewart

2.33

Strikes / min

1.41

2.82

Strikes absorbed / min

2.42

47%

Strike defense

43%

1.02

TDs / 15 min

1.32

81%

Takedown defense

60%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.49evenly matched on net striking-1.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Erik KochKyle Stewart

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Erik Koch(10 fights)Kyle Stewart(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +117.1|Blue -117.1

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +357.0|Blue -357.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Erik KochTargetKyle Stewart

By target zone

57% acc · 81%

Head

29% acc · 57%

70% acc · 19%

Body

33% acc · 13%

Leg

70% acc · 30%

By position

43% acc · 43%

Distance

33% acc · 83%

71% acc · 14%

Clinch

57% acc · 17%

84% acc · 43%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Erik Koch rounds

even

Kyle Stewart rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control1:50

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:07Control

Round 2Erik Koch edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns2

Control3:23

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:07Control

Round 3Erik Koch edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns2

Control3:46

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 63

Sig Strikes

23 / 64

59.7%

Sig Str %

34%

67 / 99

Total Strikes

68 / 119

4 / 11

TDs

0 / 8

38.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

8:59

Ctrl Time

2:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Kyle Stewart	14 / 32	33 / 52	0 / 6
1	Erik Koch	12 / 25	15 / 28	0 / 4
2	Kyle Stewart	5 / 13	23 / 39	0 / 1
2	Erik Koch	11 / 16	26 / 31	2 / 4
3	Kyle Stewart	4 / 19	12 / 28	0 / 1
3	Erik Koch	14 / 22	26 / 40	2 / 3

Erik Koch

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10

Kyle Stewart

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights2