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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Dustin Poirier won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1494

Erik KochvsDustin PoirierUFC Prediction Result

UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2 · Saturday, August 31, 2013Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA

Official fight result

Dustin Poirier won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupErik Koch: Submission grapplervsDustin Poirier: Submission grappler

Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.

Model Prediction: Dustin Poirier wins(64.1%)

Actual result: Dustin Poirier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dustin Poirier at +185 American odds

+$185 profit

$285 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Erik Koch has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Erik Koch

Red Corner

Dustin Poirier

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+185

(35%)

1492

Elo

1494

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Erik Koch

oldest →

KOvs Daron Cruickshank · May 14

SUBvs Shane Campbell · May 16

vs Clay Guida · Jun 17

vs Bobby Green · Jan 18

vs Kyle Stewart · Jul 19

latest

Dustin PoirierL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Michael Chandler · Nov 22

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jul 23

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Mar 24

SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jun 24

vs Max Holloway · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Erik KochMetricDustin Poirier

2.33

Strikes / min

5.24

2.82

Strikes absorbed / min

4.57

47%

Strike defense

52%

1.02

TDs / 15 min

1.15

81%

Takedown defense

64%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.49Δ 1.16 — meaningful gap+0.67

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Erik KochDustin Poirier

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Erik Koch(10 fights)Dustin Poirier(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.0|Blue +2.0

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -2.6|Blue +2.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Erik KochTargetDustin Poirier

By target zone

29% acc · 53%

Head

56% acc · 74%

100% acc · 38%

Body

75% acc · 17%

75% acc · 9%

Leg

63% acc · 9%

By position

25% acc · 41%

Distance

39% acc · 35%

93% acc · 41%

Clinch

81% acc · 24%

86% acc · 19%

Ground

81% acc · 41%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Erik Koch rounds

even

Dustin Poirier rounds

Round 1Dustin Poirier edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:14

Knockdowns0

27Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:28Control

2Knockdowns

Round 2Dustin Poirier edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:47Control

Round 3Erik Koch edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control3:15

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:16Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 74

Sig Strikes

54 / 92

46.7%

Sig Str %

65.7%

50 / 93

Total Strikes

74 / 112

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 6

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

3:29

Ctrl Time

7:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dustin Poirier	27 / 44	35 / 52	1 / 1	1
1	Erik Koch	8 / 15	9 / 16	0 / 0	2
2	Dustin Poirier	19 / 39	26 / 46	1 / 2	1
2	Erik Koch	9 / 35	13 / 40	0 / 0	0
3	Dustin Poirier	8 / 9	13 / 14	0 / 3	0
3	Erik Koch	15 / 24	28 / 37	0 / 0	3

Erik Koch

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10

Dustin Poirier

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights31