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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Daron Cruickshank won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1492

Elo1356

Erik KochvsDaron CruickshankUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva · Saturday, May 10, 2014Cincinnati, Ohio, USA

Official fight result

Daron Cruickshank won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:21

Style matchupErik Koch: Submission grapplervsDaron Cruickshank: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Daron Cruickshank wins(55.9%)

Actual result: Daron Cruickshank wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daron Cruickshank at +265 American odds

+$265 profit

$365 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daron Cruickshank enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Daron Cruickshank has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Erik Koch has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Daron Cruickshank (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Erik Koch

Red Corner

Daron Cruickshank

Blue Corner

-295

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+265

(27%)

1492

Elo

1356

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

5'10"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Erik Koch

oldest →

KOvs Rafaello Oliveira · Feb 14

SUBvs Shane Campbell · May 16

vs Clay Guida · Jun 17

vs Bobby Green · Jan 18

vs Kyle Stewart · Jul 19

latest

Daron CruickshankL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jorge Masvidal · Jul 14

vs Anthony Njokuani · Oct 14

SUBvs Beneil Dariush · Mar 15

SUBvs James Krause · Jul 15

SUBvs Paul Felder · Jan 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Erik KochMetricDaron Cruickshank

2.33

Strikes / min

2.88

2.82

Strikes absorbed / min

2.98

47%

Strike defense

57%

1.02

TDs / 15 min

2.04

81%

Takedown defense

60%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.49evenly matched on net striking-0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Erik KochDaron Cruickshank

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Erik Koch(10 fights)Daron Cruickshank(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +135.7|Blue -135.7

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Erik KochTargetDaron Cruickshank

By target zone

7% acc · 17%

Head

58% acc · 88%

100% acc · 17%

Body

43% acc · 13%

67% acc · 67%

Leg

0% acc

By position

29% acc · 100%

Distance

27% acc · 25%

Clinch

Ground

78% acc · 75%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Erik Koch rounds

even

Daron Cruickshank rounds

Round 1Daron Cruickshank edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 21

Sig Strikes

24 / 45

28%

Sig Str %

53%

6 / 21

Total Strikes

26 / 47

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Daron Cruickshank	24 / 45	26 / 47	0 / 0	0
1	Erik Koch	6 / 21	6 / 21	0 / 0	0

Erik Koch

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10

Daron Cruickshank

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights12