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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Bobby Green won · U-DEC R3
Elo1492
Erik Koch
Elo1445

Erik KochvsBobby GreenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2 · Saturday, January 27, 2018Charlotte, North Carolina, USA

Official fight result

Bobby Green won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Bobby Green wins(64.7%)

Actual result: Bobby Green wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bobby Green at -175 American odds

+$57 profit

$157 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Erik Koch (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Erik Koch
Red Corner
VS
Bobby Green
Blue Corner
+155
(39%)
Vegas Odds
-175
(64%)
1492
Elo
1445
37
Age
31
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'10"
180.34 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Erik Koch
oldest →
W
KOvs Rafaello Oliveira · Feb 14
L
KOvs Daron Cruickshank · May 14
W
SUBvs Shane Campbell · May 16
L
vs Clay Guida · Jun 17
W
vs Kyle Stewart · Jul 19
latest
Bobby GreenL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Rafael Fiziev · Aug 21
W
KOvs Al Iaquinta · Nov 21
W
vs Nasrat Haqparast · Feb 22
L
KOvs Islam Makhachev · Feb 22
L
KOvs Drew Dober · Dec 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Erik KochMetricBobby Green
2.33
Strikes / min
—
2.82
Strikes absorbed / min
—
47%
Strike defense
—
1.02
TDs / 15 min
—
81%
Takedown defense
—
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
—

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1499 vs 1522Strikes17.8 vs 55.9Takedowns0.3 vs 0.6Sub Atts0.75 vs 0.13Form-0.5 vs -0.8
Erik KochBobby Green

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Erik Koch(10 fights)Bobby Green(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +46.4|Blue -46.4
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red -1.6|Blue +1.6
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red -71.0|Blue +71.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Erik Koch

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights10

Bobby Green

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights9