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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Yancy Medeiros won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1363

Elo1403

Erick SilvavsYancy MedeirosUFC Prediction Result

UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway · Saturday, June 3, 2017Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Yancy Medeiros won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:01

Style matchupErick Silva: Submission grapplervsYancy Medeiros: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Yancy Medeiros wins(53.5%)

Actual result: Yancy Medeiros wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yancy Medeiros at -140 American odds

+$71 profit

$171 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Yancy Medeiros enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Yancy Medeiros has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Erick Silva

Red Corner

Yancy Medeiros

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-140

(58%)

1363

Elo

1403

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'10"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Erick Silva

oldest →

SUBvs Josh Koscheck · Mar 15

vs Neil Magny · Aug 15

KOvs Nordine Taleb · Mar 16

SUBvs Luan Chagas · Sep 16

vs Jordan Mein · Dec 17

latest

Yancy MedeirosL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alex Oliveira · Dec 17

KOvs Donald Cerrone · Feb 18

KOvs Gregor Gillespie · Jan 19

vs Lando Vannata · Feb 20

vs Damir Hadzovic · Jun 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Erick SilvaMetricYancy Medeiros

2.50

Strikes / min

4.36

4.18

Strikes absorbed / min

5.67

49%

Strike defense

47%

0.85

TDs / 15 min

0.33

56%

Takedown defense

73%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.68evenly matched on net striking-1.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Erick SilvaYancy Medeiros

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Erick Silva(10 fights)Yancy Medeiros(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -39.8|Blue +39.8

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Erick SilvaTargetYancy Medeiros

By target zone

36% acc · 41%

Head

32% acc · 79%

63% acc · 34%

Body

56% acc · 15%

100% acc · 24%

Leg

67% acc · 6%

By position

51% acc · 97%

Distance

33% acc · 82%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

25% acc · 3%

Ground

63% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Erick Silva rounds

even

Yancy Medeiros rounds

Round 1Yancy Medeiros edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 2Yancy Medeiros edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 56

Sig Strikes

33 / 94

51.5%

Sig Str %

36%

29 / 56

Total Strikes

34 / 96

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Yancy Medeiros	18 / 59	19 / 61	0 / 0
1	Erick Silva	15 / 28	15 / 28	0 / 1
2	Yancy Medeiros	15 / 35	15 / 35	0 / 0
2	Erick Silva	14 / 28	14 / 28	0 / 0

Erick Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights15

Yancy Medeiros

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights14