Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Welterweight
3 Rounds
Erick Silva won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1363
Erick Silva
Elo1354

Erick SilvavsTakenori SatoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mousasi · Saturday, February 15, 2014Jaragua do Sul, Santa Catarina, Brazil

Official fight result

Erick Silva won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:52

Model Prediction: Erick Silva wins(67.8%)

Actual result: Erick Silva wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Erick Silva at -1100 American odds

+$9 profit

$109 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Erick Silva has 40pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Erick Silva has 56pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Takenori Sato (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Erick Silva
Red Corner
VS
Takenori Sato
Blue Corner
-1100
(92%)
Vegas Odds
+900
(10%)
1363
Elo
1354
42
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'0"
Height
5'10"
187.96 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Erick SilvaL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Neil Magny · Aug 15
L
KOvs Nordine Taleb · Mar 16
W
SUBvs Luan Chagas · Sep 16
L
KOvs Yancy Medeiros · Jun 17
L
vs Jordan Mein · Dec 17
latest
Takenori Sato
oldest →
L
KOvs Hyun Gyu Lim · Sep 14
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Erick SilvaMetricTakenori Sato
2.50
Strikes / min
0.46
4.18
Strikes absorbed / min
12.92
49%
Strike defense
9%
0.85
TDs / 15 min
0.00
56%
Takedown defense
0%
1.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.68Δ 10.78 — meaningful gap-12.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1502 vs 1500Strikes11.5 vs —Takedowns0.3 vs —Sub Atts0.83 vs —Form-0.2 vs 0.0
Erick SilvaTakenori Sato

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801488149515031510← oldermost recent →
Erick Silva(10 fights)Takenori Sato(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +9.4|Blue -9.4
Recent Form
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score
Red -49.4|Blue +49.4
Grappler Score
Red -49.9|Blue +49.9
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Erick SilvaTargetTakenori Sato

By target zone

14
100% acc · 78%
Head
0
4
100% acc · 22%
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

2
100% acc · 11%
Distance
0
2
100% acc · 11%
Clinch
0
14
100% acc · 78%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Erick Silva rounds
0
even
0
Takenori Sato rounds
Round 1Erick Silva edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control0:01
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
18 / 18
Sig Strikes
0 / 0
100%
Sig Str %
—
21 / 21
Total Strikes
0 / 0
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 2
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:01
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Takenori Sato0 / 00 / 00 / 20
1Erick Silva18 / 1821 / 210 / 00

Erick Silva

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights15

Takenori Sato

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach—
Fights2