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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Erick Silva won · SUB R1

Elo1363

Elo1354

Erick SilvavsMike RhodesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway · Saturday, December 20, 2014Barueri, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Erick Silva won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:15

Style matchupErick Silva: Submission grapplervsMike Rhodes: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Erick Silva wins(54.4%)

Actual result: Erick Silva wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Erick Silva at -400 American odds

+$25 profit

$125 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Erick Silva threatens submissions; Mike Rhodes has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Mike Rhodes has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Mike Rhodes has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Erick Silva

Red Corner

Mike Rhodes

Blue Corner

-400

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+325

(24%)

1363

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'1"

187.96 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Erick SilvaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Neil Magny · Aug 15

KOvs Nordine Taleb · Mar 16

SUBvs Luan Chagas · Sep 16

KOvs Yancy Medeiros · Jun 17

vs Jordan Mein · Dec 17

latest

Mike RhodesL2 streak

oldest →

vs George Sullivan · Jan 14

vs Robert Whittaker · Jun 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Erick SilvaMetricMike Rhodes

2.50

Strikes / min

3.20

4.18

Strikes absorbed / min

4.13

49%

Strike defense

64%

0.85

TDs / 15 min

0.96

56%

Takedown defense

75%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.68evenly matched on net striking-0.93

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Erick SilvaMike Rhodes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Erick Silva(10 fights)Mike Rhodes(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +9.1|Blue -9.1

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Erick SilvaTargetMike Rhodes

By target zone

100% acc · 50%

Head

50% acc · 50%

100% acc · 50%

Body

100% acc · 50%

Leg

By position

100% acc · 100%

Distance

67% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Erick Silva rounds

even

Mike Rhodes rounds

Round 1Erick Silva edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control1:05

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2 / 2

Sig Strikes

2 / 3

100%

Sig Str %

66%

4 / 4

Total Strikes

3 / 4

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:05

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mike Rhodes	2 / 3	3 / 4	0 / 0	0
1	Erick Silva	2 / 2	4 / 4	1 / 1	1

Erick Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights15

Mike Rhodes

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights3