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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Erick Silva won · SUB R3

Elo1363

Elo1491

Erick SilvavsLuan ChagasUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg · Saturday, September 24, 2016Brasilia, Distrito Federal, Brazil

Official fight result

Erick Silva won

SUB · Round 3 · 3:57

Style matchupErick Silva: Submission grapplervsLuan Chagas: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Luan Chagas wins(63.3%)

Actual result: Erick Silva wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Luan Chagas at -150 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Erick Silva enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Erick Silva threatens submissions; Luan Chagas has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Luan Chagas has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Luan Chagas has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Erick Silva

Red Corner

Luan Chagas

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1363

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Erick SilvaL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Josh Koscheck · Mar 15

vs Neil Magny · Aug 15

KOvs Nordine Taleb · Mar 16

KOvs Yancy Medeiros · Jun 17

vs Jordan Mein · Dec 17

latest

Luan Chagas

oldest →

SUBvs Jimmy Wallhead · Jun 17

KOvs Siyar Bahadurzada · Apr 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Erick SilvaMetricLuan Chagas

2.50

Strikes / min

4.16

4.18

Strikes absorbed / min

3.19

49%

Strike defense

62%

0.85

TDs / 15 min

0.32

56%

Takedown defense

85%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.68Δ 2.65 — meaningful gap+0.97

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Erick SilvaLuan Chagas

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Erick Silva(10 fights)Luan Chagas(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -128.0|Blue +128.0

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -49.2|Blue +49.2

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Erick SilvaTargetLuan Chagas

By target zone

42% acc · 75%

Head

34% acc · 66%

67% acc · 15%

Body

57% acc · 20%

100% acc · 11%

Leg

75% acc · 15%

By position

46% acc · 65%

Distance

37% acc · 73%

67% acc · 4%

Clinch

67% acc · 5%

50% acc · 31%

Ground

53% acc · 22%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Erick Silva rounds

even

Luan Chagas rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:22

Knockdowns1

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:33Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Luan Chagas edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control2:45

Knockdowns0

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:37Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Erick Silva edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:04

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

Fight Stats

Totals

55 / 116

Sig Strikes

41 / 101

50.7%

Sig Str %

39.3%

62 / 125

Total Strikes

44 / 106

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 4

—

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

3:11

Ctrl Time

2:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Luan Chagas	20 / 47	21 / 50	0 / 1	0
1	Erick Silva	21 / 57	22 / 58	0 / 0	0
2	Luan Chagas	14 / 27	15 / 28	1 / 1	0
2	Erick Silva	13 / 21	19 / 29	0 / 0	1
3	Luan Chagas	7 / 27	8 / 28	0 / 2	0
3	Erick Silva	21 / 38	21 / 38	0 / 0	1

Erick Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights15

Luan Chagas

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights3