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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Erick Silva won · SUB R1

Elo1363

Elo1354

Erick SilvavsJosh KoscheckUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare · Saturday, March 21, 2015Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Erick Silva won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:21

Style matchupErick Silva: Submission grapplervsJosh Koscheck: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Josh Koscheck wins(63.6%)

Actual result: Erick Silva wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Josh Koscheck at +365 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Josh Koscheck enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Erick Silva threatens submissions; Josh Koscheck has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Josh Koscheck has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Erick Silva

Red Corner

Josh Koscheck

Blue Corner

-460

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+365

(22%)

1363

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'10"

187.96 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Erick SilvaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Neil Magny · Aug 15

KOvs Nordine Taleb · Mar 16

SUBvs Luan Chagas · Sep 16

KOvs Yancy Medeiros · Jun 17

vs Jordan Mein · Dec 17

latest

Josh KoscheckL4 streak

oldest →

vs Mike Pierce · Feb 12

vs Johny Hendricks · May 12

KOvs Robbie Lawler · Feb 13

KOvs Tyron Woodley · Nov 13

SUBvs Jake Ellenberger · Feb 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Erick SilvaMetricJosh Koscheck

2.50

Strikes / min

1.79

4.18

Strikes absorbed / min

2.27

49%

Strike defense

63%

0.85

TDs / 15 min

2.46

56%

Takedown defense

64%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.68Δ 1.20 — meaningful gap-0.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Erick SilvaJosh Koscheck

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Erick Silva(10 fights)Josh Koscheck(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +8.7|Blue -8.7

Recent Form

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Erick SilvaTargetJosh Koscheck

By target zone

36% acc · 57%

Head

20% acc · 100%

63% acc · 36%

Body

0% acc

50% acc · 7%

Leg

By position

35% acc · 64%

Distance

15% acc · 75%

100% acc · 7%

Clinch

100% acc · 25%

80% acc · 29%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Erick Silva rounds

even

Josh Koscheck rounds

Round 1Erick Silva edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:50

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:05Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 32

Sig Strikes

4 / 21

43%

Sig Str %

19%

16 / 34

Total Strikes

7 / 24

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 3

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:50

Ctrl Time

1:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Josh Koscheck	4 / 21	7 / 24	0 / 3	0
1	Erick Silva	14 / 32	16 / 34	0 / 1	1

Erick Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights15

Josh Koscheck

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights9