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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Erick Silva won · SUB R1

Elo1363

Elo1354

Erick SilvavsCharlie BrennemanUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall · Friday, June 8, 2012Sunrise, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Erick Silva won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:33

Style matchupErick Silva: Submission grapplervsCharlie Brenneman: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Charlie Brenneman wins(80.0%)

Actual result: Erick Silva wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Charlie Brenneman at +170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Charlie Brenneman enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Erick Silva threatens submissions; Charlie Brenneman has lost 43% of fights by sub.
Charlie Brenneman has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Erick Silva has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Erick Silva

Red Corner

Charlie Brenneman

Blue Corner

-185

(65%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1363

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'10"

187.96 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Erick SilvaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Neil Magny · Aug 15

KOvs Nordine Taleb · Mar 16

SUBvs Luan Chagas · Sep 16

KOvs Yancy Medeiros · Jun 17

vs Jordan Mein · Dec 17

latest

Charlie BrennemanL4 streak

oldest →

vs Daniel Roberts · Jan 12

KOvs Kyle Noke · Sep 12

SUBvs Beneil Dariush · Jan 14

KOvs Danny Castillo · Apr 14

SUBvs Leandro Silva · Nov 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Erick SilvaMetricCharlie Brenneman

2.50

Strikes / min

1.52

4.18

Strikes absorbed / min

1.55

49%

Strike defense

46%

0.85

TDs / 15 min

4.23

56%

Takedown defense

72%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.68Δ 1.65 — meaningful gap-0.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Erick SilvaCharlie Brenneman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Erick Silva(10 fights)Charlie Brenneman(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +9.3|Blue -9.3

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red +6.0|Blue -6.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Erick SilvaTargetCharlie Brenneman

By target zone

50% acc · 10%

Head

22% acc · 67%

75% acc · 90%

Body

33% acc · 33%

Leg

By position

64% acc · 70%

Distance

20% acc · 67%

100% acc · 30%

Clinch

50% acc · 33%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Erick Silva rounds

even

Charlie Brenneman rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:33

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:01Control

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 14

Sig Strikes

3 / 12

71%

Sig Str %

25%

11 / 15

Total Strikes

14 / 30

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 7

—

TD %

14%

Sub Att

Rev

0:33

Ctrl Time

2:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Charlie Brenneman	3 / 12	14 / 30	1 / 7	0
1	Erick Silva	10 / 14	11 / 15	0 / 0	2

Erick Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights15

Charlie Brenneman

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11