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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Carlo Prater won · DQ R1
Elo1363
Erick Silva
Elo1352
Carlo Prater

Erick SilvavsCarlo PraterUFC Prediction Result

UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes · Saturday, January 14, 2012Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Carlo Prater won

DQ · Round 1 · 0:29

Model Prediction: Erick Silva wins(77.2%)

Actual result: Carlo Prater wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Erick Silva at -530 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Erick Silva has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Carlo Prater (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Erick Silva
Red Corner
VS
Carlo Prater
Blue Corner
-530
(84%)
Vegas Odds
+455
(18%)
1363
Elo
1352
42
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
6'0"
Height
5'11"
187.96 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Erick SilvaL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Neil Magny · Aug 15
L
KOvs Nordine Taleb · Mar 16
W
SUBvs Luan Chagas · Sep 16
L
KOvs Yancy Medeiros · Jun 17
L
vs Jordan Mein · Dec 17
latest
Carlo PraterL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs TJ Grant · May 12
L
vs Marcus LeVesseur · Oct 12
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Erick SilvaMetricCarlo Prater
2.50
Strikes / min
2.03
4.18
Strikes absorbed / min
4.07
49%
Strike defense
35%
0.85
TDs / 15 min
0.43
56%
Takedown defense
57%
1.40
Sub atts / 15 min
1.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.68evenly matched on net striking-2.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1519 vs 1500Strikes4.0 vs —Takedowns0.0 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form1.0 vs 0.0
Erick SilvaCarlo Prater

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801488149515031510← oldermost recent →
Erick Silva(10 fights)Carlo Prater(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +11.4|Blue -11.4
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Erick SilvaTargetCarlo Prater

By target zone

7
78% acc · 88%
Head
0
1
100% acc · 13%
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

1
50% acc · 13%
Distance
0
0
Clinch
0
7
88% acc · 88%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Erick Silva rounds
0
even
0
Carlo Prater rounds
Round 1Erick Silva edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:04
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
8 / 10
Sig Strikes
0 / 0
80%
Sig Str %
—
12 / 15
Total Strikes
0 / 0
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 2
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:04
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Carlo Prater0 / 00 / 00 / 20
1Erick Silva8 / 1012 / 150 / 00

Erick Silva

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights15

Carlo Prater

StanceSwitch
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights3