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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Randy Brown won · SUB R3

Elo1358

Elo1498

Erick MontanovsRandy BrownUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson · Saturday, September 17, 2016Hidalgo, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Randy Brown won

SUB · Round 3 · 0:18

Style matchupErick Montano: WrestlervsRandy Brown: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Erick Montano wins(65.0%)

Actual result: Randy Brown wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Erick Montano at +425 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Erick Montano has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Randy Brown has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Erick Montano

Red Corner

Randy Brown

Blue Corner

+425

(19%)

Vegas Odds

-550

(85%)

1358

Elo

1498

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'3"

185.42 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Erick Montano

oldest →

vs Enrique Marin · Nov 15

KOvs Max Griffin · Nov 16

latest

Randy BrownL2 streak

oldest →

vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Jun 24

vs Bryan Battle · Dec 24

KOvs Nicolas Dalby · Apr 25

KOvs Gabriel Bonfim · Nov 25

DECvs Kevin Holland · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Erick MontanoMetricRandy Brown

2.79

Strikes / min

4.39

2.06

Strikes absorbed / min

3.35

64%

Strike defense

53%

2.29

TDs / 15 min

0.71

66%

Takedown defense

74%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.73evenly matched on net striking+1.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Erick MontanoRandy Brown

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Erick Montano(3 fights)Randy Brown(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -139.2|Blue +139.2

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +147.0|Blue -147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Erick MontanoTargetRandy Brown

By target zone

44% acc · 52%

Head

33% acc · 67%

20% acc · 5%

Body

60% acc · 25%

82% acc · 43%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

35% acc · 43%

Distance

30% acc · 58%

89% acc · 38%

Clinch

67% acc · 33%

67% acc · 19%

Ground

100% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Erick Montano rounds

even

Randy Brown rounds

Round 1Erick Montano edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:58

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:05Control

Round 2Erick Montano edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns2

Control4:12

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:16Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:04

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 41

Sig Strikes

12 / 30

66.7%

Sig Str %

40%

60 / 87

Total Strikes

18 / 36

2 / 8

TDs

1 / 3

16.7%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

5:14

Ctrl Time

2:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Randy Brown	9 / 20	14 / 25	0 / 2	0
1	Erick Montano	14 / 28	26 / 41	0 / 3	0
2	Randy Brown	2 / 8	3 / 9	1 / 1	0
2	Erick Montano	6 / 12	33 / 45	2 / 4	0
3	Randy Brown	1 / 2	1 / 2	0 / 0	1
3	Erick Montano	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0

Erick Montano

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights3

Randy Brown

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights21