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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Max Griffin won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1358
Erick Montano
Elo1470

Erick MontanovsMax GriffinUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson · Saturday, November 5, 2016Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Max Griffin won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:54

Style matchupErick Montano: WrestlervsMax Griffin: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Max Griffin wins(52.2%)

Actual result: Max Griffin wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Max Griffin at -135 American odds

+$74 profit

$174 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Max Griffin enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Erick Montano
Red Corner
VS
Max Griffin
Blue Corner
+125
(44%)
Vegas Odds
-135
(57%)
1358
Elo
1470
40
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'11"
185.42 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Erick Montano
oldest →
W
vs Enrique Marin · Nov 15
L
SUBvs Randy Brown · Sep 16
latest
Max GriffinL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Michael Morales · Jul 23
W
vs Jeremiah Wells · Feb 24
L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Dec 24
L
vs Chris Curtis · Jul 25
L
DECvs Victor Valenzuela · Apr 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Erick MontanoMetricMax Griffin
2.79
Strikes / min
3.70
2.06
Strikes absorbed / min
3.69
64%
Strike defense
58%
2.29
TDs / 15 min
1.44
66%
Takedown defense
69%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.73evenly matched on net striking+0.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1499 vs 1484Strikes35.0 vs 13.0Takedowns2.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 1.00Form-0.4 vs -0.9
Erick MontanoMax Griffin

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601475149015051520← oldermost recent →
Erick Montano(3 fights)Max Griffin(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -112.0|Blue +112.0
Recent Form
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Striker Score
Red +1.6|Blue -1.6
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red -28.0|Blue +28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Erick MontanoTargetMax Griffin

By target zone

2
40% acc · 67%
Head
14
48% acc · 93%
0
0% acc
Body
1
100% acc · 7%
1
100% acc · 33%
Leg
0

By position

3
43% acc · 100%
Distance
4
57% acc · 27%
0
Clinch
0
0% acc
0
Ground
11
50% acc · 73%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Erick Montano rounds
0
even
1
Max Griffin rounds
Round 1Max Griffin edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:00
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:13Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
3 / 7
Sig Strikes
15 / 30
42%
Sig Str %
50%
3 / 7
Total Strikes
15 / 30
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:13

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Max Griffin15 / 3015 / 300 / 00
1Erick Montano3 / 73 / 70 / 00

Erick Montano

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights3

Max Griffin

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights19